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CyberArk Software Ltd.'s (NASDAQ:CYBR) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 32% Above Its Share Price

CyberArk Software Ltd.'s (NASDAQ:CYBR) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 32% Above Its Share Price

CyberArk 软件有限公司's(纳斯达克股票代码:CYBR)的内在价值可能比其股价高出32%
Simply Wall St ·  2023/05/30 03:18

Key Insights

关键见解

  • CyberArk Software's estimated fair value is US$205 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
  • Current share price of US$155 suggests CyberArk Software is potentially 24% undervalued
  • The US$180 analyst price target for CYBR is 12% less than our estimate of fair value
  • 根据两阶段自由现金流转股权,CyberArk Software的估计公允价值为205美元
  • 目前155美元的股价表明 CyberArk Software 的估值可能被低估了24%
  • 分析师对CYBR的180美元目标股价比我们对公允价值的估计低12%

Does the May share price for CyberArk Software Ltd. (NASDAQ:CYBR) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

CyberArk Software Ltd.(纳斯达克股票代码:CYBR)5月份的股价是否反映了它的真正价值?今天,我们将通过估算公司未来的现金流并将其折现为现值来估算股票的内在价值。为此,我们将利用折扣现金流(DCF)模型。不要被行话拖延了,它背后的数学其实很简单。

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

但请记住,估算公司价值的方法有很多,而差价合约只是一种方法。任何有兴趣进一步了解内在价值的人都应该读一读 Simply Wall St 分析模型。

Check out our latest analysis for CyberArk Software

查看我们对 CyberArk 软件的最新分析

Crunching The Numbers

计算数字

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

我们将使用两阶段的DCF模型,顾名思义,该模型考虑了两个增长阶段。第一阶段通常是较高的增长期,在第二个 “稳步增长” 时期逐渐趋于平稳,最终值是第二个 “稳定增长” 时期。首先,我们必须估算出未来十年的现金流。在可能的情况下,我们会使用分析师的估计值,但是当这些估计值不可用时,我们会从最新的估计值或报告的价值中推断出之前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓其萎缩速度,而自由现金流不断增长的公司在此期间的增长率将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映早期增长的放缓幅度往往比后来的几年更大。

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

通常,我们假设今天的一美元比未来一美元更有价值,因此这些未来现金流的总和将折现为今天的价值:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

10 年自由现金流 (FCF) 预测

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$40.6m US$87.5m US$222.3m US$344.9m US$480.2m US$615.1m US$739.9m US$849.7m US$943.4m US$1.02b
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x14 Analyst x15 Analyst x5 Est @ 55.14% Est @ 39.23% Est @ 28.09% Est @ 20.30% Est @ 14.84% Est @ 11.02% Est @ 8.35%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 9.6% US$37.0 US$72.8 US$169 US$239 US$304 US$355 US$390 US$409 US$414 US$410
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Levered FCF(美元,百万) 4060 万美元 8750 万美元 2.223 亿美元 3.449 亿美元 4.802 亿美元 6.151 亿美元 739.9 亿美元 8.497 亿美元 9.434 亿美元 10.2 亿美元
增长率估算来源 分析师 x14 分析师 x15 分析师 x5 美国东部标准时间 @ 55.14% 美国东部时间 @ 39.23% 美国东部时间 @ 28.09% 美国东部时间 @ 20.30% 美国东部标准时间 @ 14.84% 美国东部时间 @ 11.02% Est @ 8.35%
现值(美元,百万)折扣 @ 9.6% 37.0 美元 72.8 美元 169 美元 239 美元 304 美元 355 美元 390 美元 409 美元 414 美元 410 美元

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$2.8b

(“Est” = Simply Wall St估计的FCF增长率)
10年期现金流(PVCF)的现值 = 28亿美元

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.1%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 9.6%.

我们现在需要计算终端价值,它考虑了十年之后的所有未来现金流。出于多种原因,使用了非常保守的增长率,不能超过一个国家的GDP增长率。在本例中,我们使用了10年期政府债券收益率的5年平均值(2.1%)来估算未来的增长。与10年的 “增长” 期一样,我们使用9.6%的股本成本将未来的现金流折现为今天的价值。

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$1.0b× (1 + 2.1%) ÷ (9.6%– 2.1%) = US$14b

终端价值 (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r — g) = 1.0b× (1 + 2.1%) ÷ (9.6% — 2.1%) = 140 亿美元

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$14b÷ ( 1 + 9.6%)10= US$5.6b

终端价值的现值 (PVTV)= 电视/ (1 + r)10= 14b美元÷ (1 + 9.6%)10= 56 亿美元

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$8.4b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$155, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 24% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

因此,总价值或权益价值是未来现金流现值的总和,在本例中为84亿美元。为了获得每股的内在价值,我们将其除以已发行股票总数。与目前的155美元股价相比,该公司的估值似乎略有低估,比目前的股价折扣了24%。但是,估值是不精确的工具,就像望远镜一样——移动几度然后进入另一个星系。请记住这一点。

dcf
NasdaqGS:CYBR Discounted Cash Flow May 29th 2023
纳斯达克集团:CYBR 贴现现金流 2023 年 5 月 29 日

The Assumptions

假设

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at CyberArk Software as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.043. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

现在,贴现现金流的最重要投入是贴现率,当然还有实际现金流。投资的一部分是自己对公司未来业绩的评估,因此请自己尝试计算并检查自己的假设。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑公司未来的资本需求,因此它没有全面描述公司的潜在表现。鉴于我们将CyberArk Software视为潜在股东,因此使用股权成本作为贴现率,而不是构成债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在此计算中,我们使用了 9.6%,这是基于 1.043 的杠杆测试版。与整个市场相比,Beta是衡量股票波动率的指标。我们的测试值来自全球可比公司的行业平均测试值,施加的限制在0.8到2.0之间,对于稳定的业务而言,这是一个合理的范围。

SWOT Analysis for CyberArk Software

CyberArk 软件的 SWOT 分析

Strength
力量
  • Cash in surplus of total debt.
  • 现金盈余占债务总额。
  • Balance sheet summary for CYBR.
  • CYBR的资产负债表摘要。
Weakness
弱点
  • Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.
  • 在过去的一年中,股东被稀释了。
Opportunity
机会
  • Forecast to reduce losses next year.
  • 预计明年将减少损失。
  • Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows.
  • 根据当前的自由现金流,有足够的现金流超过3年。
  • Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
  • 交易价格比我们估计的公允价值低20%以上。
Threat
威胁
  • Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
  • 运营现金流无法很好地覆盖债务。
  • Not expected to become profitable over the next 3 years.
  • 预计在未来三年内不会盈利。
  • Is CYBR well equipped to handle threats?
  • CYBR 有能力应对威胁吗?

Looking Ahead:

展望未来:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For CyberArk Software, we've compiled three fundamental factors you should consider:

尽管很重要,但DCF的计算不应该是您在研究公司时要考虑的唯一指标。DCF 模型不是投资估值的万能之计。取而代之的是,DCF模型的最佳用途是测试某些假设和理论,看看它们是否会导致公司被低估或被高估。例如,公司股本成本或无风险利率的变化可能会对估值产生重大影响。股价低于内在价值的原因是什么?对于 CyberArk 软件,我们整理了你应该考虑的三个基本因素:

  1. Risks: Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for CyberArk Software you should be aware of.
  2. Future Earnings: How does CYBR's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
  1. 风险: 举个例子,我们发现了 CyberArk 软件有 2 个警告信号 你应该知道。
  2. 未来收益: 与同行和整个市场相比,CYBR的增长率如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,更深入地了解未来几年的分析师共识数字。
  3. 其他稳健的业务: 低债务、高股本回报率和良好的过往表现是强劲业务的基础。为什么不浏览我们的互动式具有坚实商业基础的股票清单,看看是否还有其他公司你可能没有考虑过!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQGS every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

PS。Simply Wall St应用程序每天对纳斯达克证券交易所的每只股票进行折扣现金流估值。如果您想找到其他股票的计算方法,请在此处搜索。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St 的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。 我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。 它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街在上述任何股票中都没有头寸。

译文内容由第三方软件翻译。


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