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Estimating The Fair Value Of MakeMyTrip Limited (NASDAQ:MMYT)

Estimating The Fair Value Of MakeMyTrip Limited (NASDAQ:MMYT)

估算 MakeMyTrip Limited(纳斯达克股票代码:MMYT)的公允价值
Simply Wall St ·  2023/05/18 22:06

Key Insights

关键见解

  • The projected fair value for MakeMyTrip is US$29.03 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
  • With US$26.30 share price, MakeMyTrip appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
  • Analyst price target for MMYT is US$37.89, which is 31% above our fair value estimate
  • 根据两阶段自由现金流转股权,MakeMyTrip的预计公允价值为29.03美元
  • MakeMyTrip的股价为26.30美元,交易价格似乎接近其估计的公允价值
  • MMYT的分析师目标股价为37.89美元,比我们的公允价值估计高出31%

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of MakeMyTrip Limited (NASDAQ:MMYT) as an investment opportunity by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

今天,我们将简单介绍一种估值方法,该估值方法用于通过计算公司预测的未来现金流并将其折现回今天的价值,来估算MakeMyTrip Limited(纳斯达克股票代码:MMYT)作为投资机会的吸引力。这将使用贴现现金流 (DCF) 模型来完成。尽管它可能看起来很复杂,但实际上并没有那么多。

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

公司可以在很多方面得到估值,因此我们要指出,DCF并不适合所有情况。对于那些热衷于股票分析的人来说,你可能会对这里的Simply Wall St分析模型感兴趣。

See our latest analysis for MakeMyTrip

查看我们对 MakeMyTrip 的最新分析

Crunching The Numbers

计算数字

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

我们使用所谓的两阶段模型,这仅意味着公司的现金流有两个不同的增长期。通常,第一阶段是较高的增长阶段,第二阶段是较低的增长阶段。首先,我们必须估算出未来十年的现金流。在可能的情况下,我们会使用分析师的估计值,但是当这些估计值不可用时,我们会从最新的估计值或报告的价值中推断出之前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓其萎缩速度,而自由现金流不断增长的公司在此期间的增长率将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映早期增长的放缓幅度往往比后来的几年更大。

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

通常,我们假设今天的一美元比未来一美元更有价值,因此这些未来现金流的总和将折现为今天的价值:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

10 年自由现金流 (FCF) 估计

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$48.0m US$100.0m US$131.5m US$214.0m US$281.2m US$344.8m US$401.6m US$450.4m US$491.6m US$526.2m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x2 Analyst x1 Analyst x2 Analyst x1 Est @ 31.41% Est @ 22.62% Est @ 16.47% Est @ 12.16% Est @ 9.14% Est @ 7.03%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 12% US$42.8 US$79.4 US$93.0 US$135 US$158 US$173 US$179 US$179 US$174 US$166
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Levered FCF(美元,百万) 4800 万美元 1.000 亿美元 1.315 亿美元 2.140 亿美元 2.812 亿美元 3.448 亿美元 4.016 亿美元 4.504 亿美元 4.916 亿美元 5.262 亿美元
增长率估算来源 分析师 x2 分析师 x1 分析师 x2 分析师 x1 美国东部时间 @ 31.41% 美国东部标准时间 @ 22.62% 美国东部标准时间 @ 16.47% Est @ 12.16% 美国东部标准时间 @ 9.14% 美国东部标准时间 @ 7.03%
现值(美元,百万)折扣 @ 12% 42.8 美元 79.4 美元 93.0 美元 135 美元 158 美元 173 美元 179 美元 179 美元 174 美元 166 美元

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$1.4b

(“Est” = Simply Wall St估计的FCF增长率)
10年期现金流(PVCF)的现值 = 14亿美元

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.1%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 12%.

我们现在需要计算终端价值,它考虑了十年之后的所有未来现金流。戈登增长公式用于计算终端价值,其未来年增长率等于10年期政府债券收益率2.1%的5年平均值。我们将终端现金流折现为今天的价值,权益成本为12%。

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$526m× (1 + 2.1%) ÷ (12%– 2.1%) = US$5.3b

终端价值 (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r — g) = 5.26亿美元× (1 + 2.1%) ÷ (12% — 2.1%) = 53亿美元

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$5.3b÷ ( 1 + 12%)10= US$1.7b

终端价值的现值 (PVTV)= 电视/ (1 + r)10= 53b美元÷ (1 + 12%)10= 17亿美元

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$3.1b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$26.3, the company appears about fair value at a 9.4% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

总价值是未来十年的现金流总和加上贴现的终端价值,由此得出总权益价值,在本例中为31亿美元。在最后一步中,我们将权益价值除以已发行股票的数量。与目前的26.3美元股价相比,该公司的公允价值似乎比目前的股价折扣了9.4%。任何计算中的假设都会对估值产生重大影响,因此最好将其视为粗略的估计,而不是精确到最后一美分。

dcf
NasdaqGS:MMYT Discounted Cash Flow May 18th 2023
纳斯达克集团:mmyt 贴现现金流 2023 年 5 月 18 日

The Assumptions

假设

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at MakeMyTrip as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 12%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.039. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

我们要指出,贴现现金流的最重要投入是贴现率,当然还有实际现金流。如果你不同意这些结果,那就自己去计算一下,试试假设。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑公司未来的资本需求,因此它没有全面描述公司的潜在表现。鉴于我们将MakeMyTrip视为潜在股东,因此使用股权成本作为贴现率,而不是构成债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在此计算中,我们使用了 12%,这是基于 1.039 的杠杆测试版。与整个市场相比,Beta是衡量股票波动率的指标。我们的测试值来自全球可比公司的行业平均测试值,施加的限制在0.8到2.0之间,对于稳定的业务而言,这是一个合理的范围。

SWOT Analysis for MakeMyTrip

MakeMyTrip 的 SWOT 分析

Strength
力量
  • Cash in surplus of total debt.
  • 现金盈余占债务总额。
  • Balance sheet summary for MMYT.
  • MMYT 的资产负债表摘要。
Weakness
弱点
  • Interest payments on debt are not well covered.
  • 债务的利息支付未得到充分保障。
Opportunity
机会
  • Expected to breakeven next year.
  • 预计明年将实现盈亏平衡。
  • Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows.
  • 根据当前的自由现金流,有足够的现金流超过3年。
  • Current share price is below our estimate of fair value.
  • 目前的股价低于我们对公允价值的估计。
Threat
威胁
  • Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
  • 运营现金流无法很好地覆盖债务。
  • Is MMYT well equipped to handle threats?
  • MMYT 有能力应对威胁吗?

Next Steps:

后续步骤:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For MakeMyTrip, we've compiled three relevant items you should consider:

就建立投资论点而言,估值只是硬币的一面,它只是公司需要评估的众多因素之一。DCF 模型不是投资估值的万能之计。最好你应用不同的案例和假设,看看它们将如何影响公司的估值。如果一家公司以不同的速度增长,或者其股本成本或无风险利率发生急剧变化,则产出可能会大不相同。对于 MakeMyTrip,我们整理了三个你应该考虑的相关项目:

  1. Financial Health: Does MMYT have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
  2. Future Earnings: How does MMYT's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
  1. 财务健康: MMYT 的资产负债表健康吗?看看我们的免费资产负债表分析,其中包含对杠杆率和风险等关键因素的六项简单检查。
  2. 未来收益: 与同行和整个市场相比,MMYT的增长率如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,更深入地了解未来几年的分析师共识数字。
  3. 其他稳健的业务: 低债务、高股本回报率和良好的过往表现是强劲业务的基础。为什么不浏览我们的互动式具有坚实商业基础的股票清单,看看是否还有其他公司你可能没有考虑过!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

PS。Simply Wall St每天都会更新每只美国股票的差价合约计算结果,因此,如果您想找到任何其他股票的内在价值,请在此处搜索。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St 的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。 我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。 它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街在上述任何股票中都没有头寸。

译文内容由第三方软件翻译。


以上内容仅用作资讯或教育之目的,不构成与富途相关的任何投资建议。富途竭力但不能保证上述全部内容的真实性、准确性和原创性。
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