郑煤机(601717)2022年年报及2023年一季报点评:业绩符合预期 煤机智能化布局稳步推进

Zheng Coal Machine (601717) 2022 Annual Report and 2023 Quarterly Report Reviews: Performance is in line with expectations, the intelligent layout of coal machines is progressing steadily

中信證券 ·  05/07  · Researches

The company released its 2022 annual report and 2023 quarterly report. In 2022, the company achieved operating revenue of 32,043 million yuan/YoY +9.4%, net profit of 2,538 million yuan/YoY +30.3%; in the first quarter of 2023, the company achieved operating income of 9.211 billion yuan/YoY +13.8%, and net profit of 783 million yuan/YOY +14.9%. The performance was in line with our expectations. The company is leading the trend of intelligent coal machines. The future is expected to benefit from increased demand brought about by the rising prosperity of the coal machinery industry, and the company's auto parts sector's business situation continues to improve. We are optimistic about the company's long-term development prospects and maintain the “buy” rating.

The company's performance is generally in line with expectations, and net interest rates have improved. 1) Revenue & profit side: In 2022 and 2023Q1, the company achieved operating revenue of 32.043 billion yuan/YoY +9.4%, 9.211 billion yuan/YoY +13.8%, net profit of 2,538 million yuan/YoY +30.3%, 783 million yuan/YoY +14.9%. Overall performance continued to grow, mainly due to the continued good development trend of the coal industry and the company's coal machine business orders continued to grow.

The company's overall gross margins in 2022 and 2023Q1 were 20.7% /-1.2pcts and 21.0% /-0.4pct, respectively, and the net interest rates were 7.9% /+1.3pcts and 8.5% /+0.1pct. The continued increase in net interest rates was mainly due to a decrease in the cost rate during the company period. 2) Expense side: In 2022 and 2023Q1, the company's four rates were 10.7% /YOY-2.9pcts and 10.6% /YOY-1.1 pcts, respectively, showing a slight downward trend. Among them, the management fee rates were 3.4% /-1.7 pcts and 2.9% /-0.6pct respectively. The decline in management expense ratios in 2022 was mainly due to a decrease in the company's medium- to long-term incentives and restructuring expenses.

Coal machine sector: 1) Operating performance: In 2022, the company's coal machine segment achieved revenue of 16.757 billion yuan and Gumo's net profit of 2,512 billion yuan, +28.08% and +20.0%, respectively; 2023Q1 achieved revenue of 4.792 billion yuan and Guimu's net profit of 763 million yuan, +20.37%, respectively, compared with the same period last year. Benefiting from the good development trend of the coal industry, the performance of the company's coal machinery sector has steadily improved. 2) Business outlook: In 2022, the company implemented a business partner shareholding plan in the form of capital increase and stock expansion in hydraulic electronic control subsidiaries. At the same time, strategic investor holdings were introduced to stimulate endogenous motivation and help implement intelligent strategies. According to the “Guiding Opinions on the High-Quality Development of the Coal Industry in the “14th Five-Year Plan” (China Coal Industry Association), by the end of the “14th Five-Year Plan”, the number of coal mines nationwide was controlled at around 4,000, and more than 1,000 intelligent coal mines were built. It is expected that the “14th Five-Year Plan” period will be a period of rapid development of intelligent coal mine construction, and the company is expected to fully benefit from the trend of intelligent coal mines in the future.

Auto parts sector: 1) Operating performance: 2023Q1's auto parts sector achieved revenue of 15.286 billion yuan and Guimu's net profit of 303 million yuan, respectively -5.7% and +2859.6%, respectively; 2023Q1 achieved revenue of 4.424 billion yuan and Guimu's net profit of 20 million yuan, +7.18% and -70.6%, respectively, compared with the same period last year. Among them, ASIMCO achieved revenue of 3.446 billion yuan in 2022, or -16.97% year-on-year, mainly due to declining domestic commercial vehicle market sentiment; SEG achieved revenue of 11.866 billion yuan in 2022, -1.6% year on year, and achieved revenue of 3,226 billion yuan in 2023Q1, +9.82% year on year. The performance data was greatly affected by fluctuations in the exchange rate of the euro to the RMB.

2) ASIMCO: In 2022, ASIMCO accelerated business transformation and upgrading, rapidly expanded its new energy parts business, quickly entered the high-end system and assembly market, and achieved revenue from the new energy business of about 190 million yuan, an increase of about 130% over the previous year. 3) SEG: In 2022, the company invested in the establishment of SEG Automobile Electric Systems Co., Ltd., focusing on local customers, strengthening global R&D collaboration, and rapidly promoting the development and application of high-voltage drive motors. It has now received an order for a high-voltage flat wire motor fixed rotor mass production procurement project from a leading NEV smart vehicle solution provider. It has entered the NEV electric drive system supply chain from a high starting point, and completed the installation of the first high-voltage motor production line for domestic and foreign customers. At the same time, many high voltage drive motor projects are being negotiated and advanced for domestic and foreign customers.

Risk factors: Decline in the prosperity of the coal industry; intelligent capital expenditure of coal companies fell short of expectations; exchange rates fluctuated greatly; raw material prices fluctuated greatly; loss of company goodwill; and the company's new energy product development fell short of expectations.

Investment advice: We are optimistic about the steady development of the company's coal machine business, the rapid growth in demand for integrated intelligence, the maintenance of an advantageous position in the core business of the auto parts sector, and the continuous development of growth space in the field of new energy products.

According to the company's 2022 annual report and the first quarter report of 2023, we adjusted the company's 2023/24 net profit forecast to 32.3/3.78 billion yuan (the original forecast was 3.43/4.18 billion yuan), adding 4.51 billion yuan to the 2025 net profit forecast. Taking Tiandi Technology, which sells coal mining machinery, as a comparable company, its 2023 Wind unanimously expects the current price to correspond to PE valuation of about 9.6 times. Considering the company's leading position in the field of intelligent coal machines and the company's broad development prospects for new energy products in the automotive parts sector, the company should enjoy a certain valuation premium. We gave the company 10.5 times PE valuation in 2023, maintaining the target price of 19 yuan, and maintaining the “buy” rating.

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