Gekowei (688728): Owned FABs accumulate long-term competitiveness

華泰證券 · May 5, 2023 00:00 · Researches

自有晶圆厂管理费用/折旧拖累盈利，新产品持续取得进展格科微召开公开电话会介绍新产品、自建晶圆厂相关业务进展。公司22 年收入59.4 亿（yoy-15.1%），归母净利润4.39 亿（yoy-65.1%），1Q23 收入8.5 亿（yoy-50.8%），归母净亏损1.3 亿（yoy-152.5%），归母扣非净亏损1.4 亿（yoy-157%）。我们看到1）公司自有晶圆厂开办费用推动管理费用22 年增长168%到3.3 亿元，1Q23 管理费用1.35 亿，我们预计2Q23 管理费用仍将保持高位，2）公司自有晶圆厂23 年中开始计提折旧，我们估计23 年或带来5-6 亿折旧增量，3）公司1Q23 销售部分已全额计提存货减值产品，毛利率环比提升13.3pp 至38.4%，我们预计未来仍有部分类似产品销售提振毛利率。我们下调23/24 年归母净利预测81/64%到2.4/4.8 亿元，引入25 年预测6.3 亿元，参考Wind 一致预期可比公司2023 年EV/EBITDA 中位数45.05 给予估值，下调目标价19.2 元，维持买入。

22 &1Q23：自建晶圆厂拖累业绩，部分全额减值存货出售提振毛利率分部来看，22 年公司CMOS 图像传感器手机类收入39.8 亿元（yoy-17.5%），毛利率27.5%（yoy-0.86pp），非手机类收入10.7 亿元（yoy-4.7%），毛利率33.1%（yoy-2.1pp），显示驱动芯片收入9 亿元（yoy-15.1%），毛利率40.4%（yoy-15.8pp）。一方面我们看到公司自建晶圆厂拖累公司业绩，开办费用推动管理费用22 年增长168%到3.3 亿元，1Q23 管理费用1.35 亿，另一方面，我们看到公司1Q23 销售部分已全额计提存货减值产品，毛利率环比提升13.3pp 至38.4%。

23 年展望：自建晶圆厂为公司积累长期竞争力，存货减值冲回或增厚利润自建晶圆厂方面，我们预计2Q23 开办费用仍将体现在管理费用中，2H23折旧逐渐开始计提，公司带来盈利压力，我们估计23 年或带来5-6 亿折旧增量，24 年新工厂或仍需计提10 亿折旧。但新晶圆厂或为公司带来工艺研发的加速，为公司积累长期竞争力。新产品方面，公司表示32M 已经收到订单。存货减值方面，公司会计政策为全额计提大部分账龄较长的存货，截至22 年底，公司共计提存货跌价准备5.3 亿元，但大部分计提为2-8M 通用产品，1Q23 部分产品销售带动毛利率环比大幅提升。我们提示关注减值冲回带来的上行可能。

下调目标价至19.2 元，买入

我们下调23/24 年归母净利预测81/64%到2.4/4.8 亿元，引入25 年预测6.3 亿元，参考Wind 一致预期可比公司2023 年EV/EBITDA 中位数45.05给予公司估值，下调目标价至19.2 元（前值20 元），维持买入。

风险提示：智能手机需求下滑，CIS 竞争加剧，存货减值转回。

Owned fab management costs/depreciation dragged down profits, and new products continued to make progress. Gekowei held a public conference call to introduce new products and business developments related to self-built fabs. The company's 22-year revenue was 5.94 billion (YOY -15.1%), net profit of 439 million (YOY -65.1%), 1Q23 revenue was 850 million (yoy -50.8%), net loss of 130 million yuan (yoy -152.5%), and net loss of 140 million yuan (YOY -157%) was deducted from the mother. We saw 1) the company's own fab start-up expenses boosted management expenses by 168% to 330 million yuan in 22, and the management expenses of 1Q23 were 135 million. We expect 2Q23 management expenses to remain high, 2) the company's own fabs began to accrue depreciation in 23 years, which may result in an increase of 5-6 billion dollars in depreciation in 23 years. 3) The company's 1Q23 sales section has fully charged inventory impairment products, and gross margin increased 13.3 pp to 38.4% month-on-month. We expect sales of similar products to boost gross profit margins in the future. We lowered the 23/24 gross profit forecast 81/64% to 244/48 million yuan, and introduced the 25-year forecast of 630 million yuan. Referring to Wind's unanimous forecast of 45.05 billion yuan, the valuation was comparable to the company's 2023 EV/EBITDA median of 45.05, lowered the target price by 19.2 yuan, and maintained purchases.

22 &1Q23: Self-built fabs dragged down performance. Looking at the gross margin segment, some full impairment inventory sales boosted gross margin segment. In '22, the company's CMOS image sensor mobile phone category revenue was 3.98 billion yuan (yoy -17.5%), gross profit margin was 27.5% (yoy-0.86pp), non-mobile phone revenue was 1.07 billion yuan (yoy -4.7%), and gross profit margin was 33.1% (yoy-2.1pp), showing driving chip revenue of 900 million yuan (yoy -15.1%) and gross profit margin of 40.4% (yoy-15.8pp). On the one hand, we saw that the company's self-built fabs dragged down the company's performance. The start-up costs drove management expenses to increase 168% to 330 million yuan in '22, and the 1Q23 management expenses of 135 million. On the other hand, we saw that the company's 1Q23 sales portion had fully charged inventory impairment products, and gross margin increased 13.3 pp to 38.4% month-on-month.

Looking ahead to 23 years: Self-built fabs accumulate long-term competitiveness for the company, inventory impairment recedes or increases profits. In terms of building self-built fabs, we expect that 2Q23 start-up expenses will still be reflected in management expenses. 2H23 depreciation will gradually begin to be accrued, putting pressure on the company to profit. We estimate that 23 years may bring about an increase in depreciation of 5-6 billion dollars, and the new factory may still need to calculate 1 billion dollars in depreciation in '24. However, the new fab may bring the company an acceleration of process development and build long-term competitiveness for the company. In terms of new products, the company said 32M has received orders. In terms of inventory impairment, the company's accounting policy is to fully account for most of the inventory that has been on account for a long time. By the end of '22, the company had withdrawn a total of 530 million yuan in inventory price reduction, but most of the calculation was 2-8M general products. Sales of some products in 1Q23 led to a sharp increase in gross margin over the previous month. We suggest that attention be paid to the upward potential brought about by a pullback in impairment.

Lower the target price to 19.2 yuan and buy

We lowered the 23/24 net profit forecast of 81/64% to 244/48 million yuan, and introduced the 25-year forecast of 630 million yuan. Referring to Wind's unanimous forecast of 45.05 billion yuan for the comparable company's 2023 EV/EBITDA value the company, lowered the target price to 19.2 yuan (previous value of 20 yuan), and maintained purchases.

Risk warning: smartphone demand has declined, competition in the CIS intensifies, and inventory impairment has returned.

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格科微(688728)：自有FAB积累长期竞争力

Gekowei (688728): Owned FABs accumulate long-term competitiveness

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