天齐锂业(002466):2023年一季度营业收入持续大幅增长 资源开拓稳步进行

Tianqi Lithium (002466): Revenue continued to grow sharply in the first quarter of 2023, and resource development progressed steadily

海通國際 ·  05/03  · Researches

2023Q1's revenue, sales volume, and price continued to grow well. Tianqi Lithium achieved revenue of 11.499 billion yuan in 2023Q1, an increase of 117.77% over the previous year. This is mainly due to the fact that the average sales prices of the company's lithium compounds, their extensions, and lithium ore increased by 40.47% and 245.09% respectively over the same period of the previous year. The company's net profit was 4,875 billion yuan, an increase of 46.49% over the previous year. Mainly, the average sales price of major lithium products increased compared to the same period last year, and the company's investment income in the associate company SQM in the first quarter increased significantly compared to the same period last year.

The company released a strategic plan for the next five years to continue to develop upstream resources. According to the company's strategic plan for the next five years reviewed and approved in 2023Q1, the company will continue to develop upstream high-quality lithium resources on the basis of existing lithium resources and the production capacity and advantages of the processing industry, expand the processing capacity of lithium chemical products, penetrate the entire industry chain with electric vehicles and energy storage applications as the guide, and strive to keep the target of lithium chemical product production capacity of about 300,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2027.

The termination of the transaction relating to the holding subsidiary TLEA's proposed acquisition of 100% equity in Australian Essential Metals Limited (ESS) will not have a significant adverse impact on the company's performance for the time being. Since ESS's shareholders' meeting to review this transaction failed to pass, according to the “Plan Implementation Agreement” previously signed between TELA and ESS, TELA terminated the transaction separately in accordance with the relevant contract rights. At the same time, neither party was liable for the terminated transaction. Therefore, the termination of this transaction will not have a significant adverse impact on the company's financial situation and operating results this year, nor will it harm the interests of the company and all shareholders.

Profit forecast and rating: Considering the decline in lithium prices, we expect the company's revenue for 2023-2025 to be 41.187 billion, 405.48 billion, and 37.953 billion respectively, and the company's net profit for 2023-2025 is 22.927 billion, 21.74 billion, and 21.65 billion yuan respectively; EPS is 13.97 yuan, 13.24 yuan, 13.20 yuan respectively (the original 2023-24 forecast was 16.16 and 19.46 yuan). According to comparable company valuations, we gave the company Seven times PE in 2023 (originally 10x in 2022), the target price was 97.79 yuan (-33%), maintaining the “superior market” rating.

Risk warning: Fluctuations in raw material prices, downstream demand falling short of expectations, capacity construction and release falling short of expectations, and the process of nationalizing Chile's lithium industry had a negative impact on the import of lithium resources.

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