九洲药业(603456):持续高增长 逐步完善一体化多功能产能布局

Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical (603456): Continuing high growth and gradually improving the integrated multi-functional production capacity layout

興業證券 ·  05/01  · Researches

Key points of investment

Incident: The company released its 2022 annual report. For the whole of 2022, the company achieved sales revenue of 5.445 billion yuan (+34.01% year-on-year), achieved net profit of 921 million yuan (+45.28% year-on-year), and achieved net profit of 927 million yuan after deducting non-return to the mother (+61.70% year-on-year). The company released its report for the first quarter of 2023. In the first quarter of 2023, the company achieved sales revenue of 1,751 million yuan (+27.49% YoY, +63.30%), achieved net profit of 281 million yuan (+35.07% YoY, +57.97% YoY), and achieved net profit of 274 million yuan (+40.19% YoY, +66.93% month-on-month).

Comment: The company's performance is in line with the previously announced range. The overall growth trend has been relatively rapid. The CDMO business continues to maintain a high growth rate, the pipeline is growing steadily, the market space for large orders can be expected to expand, and production capacity expansion is smooth. The company has deepened its integrated multi-purpose production capacity layout, waiting to be released, gross margin has been rising steadily, and the cost rate has remained stable throughout the various periods.

Profit forecast and valuation: The company continues to be deeply involved in the CDMO business. With the release of major products in the commercialization stage, the upgrading of various advanced technology platforms, and the expansion of production capacity, the company's competitive advantage in the market will be further unleashed. The increase in CDMO share will also bring about a continuous increase in profitability. We have adjusted our profit forecasts. We have adjusted our profit forecasts. We expect EPS for 2023-2025 to be 1.35 yuan, 1.80 yuan, and 2.39 yuan respectively. The price-earnings ratios corresponding to the closing price of April 28, 2023 will be 23.7X, 17.8X and 13.4X respectively , maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating.

Risk warning: customer fluctuation risk; policy change risk; market competition risk; environmental safety risk, etc.

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