中国东航(600115):Q1减亏明显 静待业绩反弹

China Eastern Airlines (600115): Q1 losses clearly await a rebound in performance

中泰證券 ·  04/29  · Researches

China Eastern Airlines published its quarterly report on April 28, 2023:

In Q1 2023, the company achieved operating income of 22.261 billion yuan, an increase of 75.77% over Q1 2022, and achieved net profit of 3.803 billion yuan from Q1 2022, a loss of 3,957 billion yuan from Q1 2022, a net profit of 3.944 billion yuan after deducting non-Gumo's net profit of 3.944 billion yuan, a loss of 3.879 billion yuan from Q1 2022.

In Q1 2023, the company's operations have clearly recovered compared to the same period last year.

On the operational side, the Q1 fleet in 2023 was 779 aircraft, and supply and demand continued to recover. As of March 2023, the company's fleet size was 779 aircraft (excluding business jets), a net increase of 4 aircraft over the end of 2022. In Q1 2023, the company's ASK and RPK rose 52.49% and 79.60%, respectively, and recovered to 73.07% and 62.48% in the same period in 2019. The company's passenger occupancy rate was 70.61%, up 10.66 pct from Q1 2022 and down 11.97 pct from the same period in 2019.

In terms of revenue, Q1 2023 increased significantly. In Q1 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of 22.261 billion yuan, up 75.77% from Q1 2022, to 74.07% in the same period in 2019.

On the cost side, due to the restoration of the company's capacity, the company's operating costs increased year-on-year. In Q1 2023, the company's operating cost was 24.183 billion yuan, up 25.99% from Q1 2022 and 32.37% from Q4 2022.

In terms of expenses, the company's total expenses increased year over year. In Q1 2023, the company's sales, management, R&D and financial expenses totaled 2,963 billion yuan, up 14.01% from Q1 2022 and 5.97% from Q4 2022.

Profit forecasting and investment ratings: The company is the largest carrier of Shanghai's two biggest carriers, and first-tier cities have obvious advantages on interflight routes. As “May 1st” and the peak season of aircraft transportation approach, against the backdrop of rising prices and demand, we expect the company's performance to rebound during the peak season. Weite previously predicted the company's 2023-2025 performance. The company's revenue for 2023-2025 was estimated to be 114 billion yuan, 142 billion yuan, and 175.5 billion yuan respectively, while Guimuji's profit forecasts were 1.5 billion yuan, 7.5 billion yuan, and 14.8 billion yuan respectively. The corresponding PE was 74.6X/15.4X/7.8X respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.

Risk warning events: the risk of a downturn in the macro-regulated economy, the risk of rising oil prices, and the risk of exchange rate fluctuations.

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