春秋航空(601021):一季度业绩触底反弹 旺季盈利有望持续提升

Spring Airlines (601021): First-quarter results bottomed out, peak season earnings are expected to continue to rise

中泰證券 ·  04/28  · Researches

On April 27, 2023, Moriaki Airlines released its 2022 annual report and 2023 quarterly report:

In 2022, revenue of 8.369 billion yuan was achieved, a decrease of 22.92% over 2021, a net profit of 303.6 billion yuan was achieved, a decrease of 7861.89% over 2021 (a loss of 3,075 billion yuan) was achieved: net profit after deducting non-return to the mother was 319.6 billion yuan, an increase of 3,086 billion yuan in loss of 3,086 billion yuan.

In Q4 2022, revenue of 1,764 million yuan was achieved, down 20.54% from Q4 2021, down 40.22% from Q3 2022, and net profit of the mother was 1,299 million yuan, down 982.50% from Q4 2021.

Decreased 164.02% from Q3 2022: net profit after deducting non-return to the mother was -1,359 billion yuan, down 733.74% from Q4 2021 and 159.85% from Q3 2022.

Q1 2023 achieved revenue of 3.863 billion yuan, up 63.65% from Q1 2022, up 118.99% from Q4 2022, and Q1 revenue increased 6.13% from 2019 Q1: Achieved net profit of Guimu was 356 million yuan, up 181.46% from Q1 2022, up 127.41% from Q4 2022: achieved net profit of 341 million yuan, up 173.65% from Q1 2022.

The company's operations in 2022 were greatly affected by the epidemic:

The size of the company's fleet continues to increase, but capacity investment and market demand have bottomed out. At the end of 2022, the company's fleet size was 116, a net increase of 3 aircraft over 2021 and a net increase of 23 aircraft over 2019. The company ASK and RPK fell 26.83% and 34.08% respectively from 2021 to 69.45% and 57.09% in 2019: the company's customer rate was 7465%, down 8.22pct from 2021, and 16.16pct from 2019.

The company's passenger kilometer revenue increased year over year. The company achieved passenger revenue of 8.102 billion yuan in 2022: a decrease of 22.99% and 43.58%, respectively, compared to 2021 and 2019. Looking at passenger kilometer revenue, the company's domestic, national standard, and regional passenger kilometer revenue for the full year of 2022 was 0.345 yuan respectively. It was 3.152 yuan and 0.93 yuan, up 14.93%, 29.60%, and 108.48% respectively from 2021.

The rise in oil prices and exchange rate fluctuations affected the company's operating performance. In 2022, the company's ASK oil deduction cost was 0.25 yuan, up 31% and 23% respectively from 2021 and 2019. Oil prices soared in 2022. The company's fuel cost was 3.95 billion yuan, up 17% from 2021, and the fuel cost per ASK was 0.13 yuan, up 60% from 2021. Fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate in 2022 caused the company to lose 126 million yuan in exchange in 2022.

The company's performance improved significantly in Q1 2023:

There was a net increase of 1 flight. As of Q1 2023, the company's fleet size was 117 song, with a net increase of 1 percent over the end of 2022, and demand from aircraft companies recovered faster than supply. In Q1 2023, the company ASK and RPK rose 4.6% and 25.76% respectively over Q1 2022, and the company's passenger occupancy rate was 86.88%, up 14.62 pct from the previous year.

Operating costs increased in Q1 2023, but total expenses declined. In Q1 2023, as the company's hydroxy business resumed, the company's operating costs were 3,376 million yuan, up 13.33% from Q1 2022: sales, management, R&D and financial expenses totaled 226 million yuan, down 7% from Q1 2022.

Profit forecasting and investment ratings: The company's cost control advantages are obvious and the recovery speed is leading in the industry. As “May 1st” and the peak summer season approach, we expect the company's performance to continue to improve. We raised the company's net profit to 2.2 billion yuan and 3.7 billion yuan (previous value of 1 billion yuan, 3 billion yuan) in 2023-2024, and increased net profit of Gimu by 5.1 billion yuan in 2025. The corresponding PE was 27.0X116.1X11.6X respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.

Risk warning events: macroeconomic downturn risk, oil price increase risk, risk of fluctuating Jiang rate.

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