九洲药业(603456):业绩符合预期 CDMO订单丰富 产能释放顺利

Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical (603456): Performance is in line with expectations, CDMO orders are abundant, production capacity is released smoothly

東吳證券 ·  04/29  · Researches

Event: in 2022, the company achieved operating income of 5.445 billion yuan (+ 34.0%), net profit of 921 million yuan (+ 45.3%), net profit of 927 million yuan (+ 61.7%) and net operating cash flow of 1.226 billion yuan (+ 80.9%). The company achieved revenue of 1.751 billion yuan (+ 27.5%) and net profit of 280 million yuan (+ 35.1%) in the first quarter of 2023.

Each pipeline maintains good growth, and the company's profitability continues to strengthen: in 2022, the company's CDMO business realized revenue of 3.417 billion yuan (+ 47.84%), gross profit margin of 39.69% (+ 1.11pct), raw material drug income of 1.637 billion yuan (+ 24.9%), gross profit margin of 30.5% (- 2.0pct). The company's 2022 gross profit margin increased by 2.24pct to 34.66% compared with the same period last year. 2023Q1 gross profit margin continued to rise to 36.90%, with the volume of high-quality orders, gross profit margin continues to rise. During this period, the overall expenditure rate remained stable, of which R & D investment was 335 million yuan (+ 77.85%), and the R & D expenditure rate increased by 1.01pct to 5.28%. Long-term R & D investment will support long-term and steady development. Taken together, the company's 2022 net interest rate increased 1.3pct to 16.91%, increasing profitability.

CDMO is rich in orders, supporting high growth performance: the company has abundant CDMO orders. In 2022, the company undertook 851 projects (+ 30.7%), including 26 listed projects (+ 30%) and 61 III projects (+ 24.5%). Completed a NDA new drug project NMPA raw drug pre-market site verification, and successfully promoted China's first self-developed Class 1 new drug for the treatment of depression. Rich orders and strong R & D capabilities continue to contribute to high performance growth.

Production capacity is one of the cores of CDMO enterprises, and the company's capacity release rhythm is excellent: 1) Taizhou Ruibo Phase I new base capacity of 1700 cubic meters has been promoted in an orderly manner; 2) Suzhou Ruibo has completed the main construction of the pilot plant, started equipment installation, and the polypeptide GMP production line has been completed; 3) the United States Ruibo has completed the GMP multi-function pilot plant; 4) Pharmaceutical Science and Technology has completed the first phase of expansion. In addition, the company actively outsourced production capacity, 1) acquired 51% stake in Kangchuan Ji Pharmaceutical in 2022, completed 2600 square meters of R & D site expansion in 2022, and 2) acquired 100% equity interest in Ruihua Zhongshan in the second half of 2022. Self-built outsourcing capacity was released in an orderly manner, supporting the rapid growth of performance.

Profit forecast and investment rating: taking into account the fluctuations in order delivery, we adjust the company's homing net profit forecast for 2023-2024 to 1.25x16.2 billion yuan, and expect 2025 homing net profit to be 2.04 billion yuan, and the corresponding PE valuation for 2023-2025 is 2318x14X respectively; taking into account the continued release of the company's CDMO performance and benefiting from in-depth cooperation with Novartis, Teva and other major pharmaceutical companies, to maintain the "buy" rating.

Risk tips: capacity expansion is not as expected, product introduction is not as expected, exchange profit and loss risk and so on.

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