occurrences
On April 25, 2023, the company released its 2022 annual report and quarterly report. During the 2022 reporting period, the company achieved operating income of 12.46 billion yuan, an increase of 10% over the previous year; the net profit of the mother reached 1,399 million yuan, a decrease of 7.67% over the previous year. 2023Q1 achieved revenue of 2,664 million yuan, an increase of 10.98% over the previous year; Guimu's net profit was 347 million yuan, an increase of 28.68% over the previous year.
reviews
The main book business has a stable market, and revenue increased at the same time as net profit after deducting non-net profit. Publishing business revenue increased 5.02% year on year, distribution revenue increased 13.45% year on year, media increased 13.34% year on year, and overall business increased 10.05% year on year; gross margin remained stable. Overall gross margin in 2022 was 41.98%, a decrease of 1.64pct, mainly due to a slight decline in gross margin in publishing, distribution, and financial services; overall expenses remained stable during the period, and R&D expenses increased 128.58% year on year, mainly due to increased R&D efforts. The profit and loss from changes in fair value during the reporting period was a loss of 128 million yuan, compared to a profit of 161 million yuan last year. The net profit returned to the mother decreased 7.76% year-on-year, but net profit returned to the mother after deducting the influence of this factor increased 12.04% year-on-year.
Deeply involved in the main publishing and distribution business, the general book business maintains a strong advantage. The teaching aid textbook business was steady during the reporting period. Publishing revenue increased 5.66% year on year and distribution revenue increased 8.22% year on year; in the general book business, publishing sales increased 10.48%, and revenue increased 2.78% year on year. Mainly due to the impact of the decline in average single book sales code, distribution business revenue increased 30.5% year on year.
The company has a strong advantage in publishing its own books. It has 9 publishing houses, 5 of which are 100 publishing houses in the country. It continues to be at the forefront of 11 advantageous brands, including essay brands, popular science books, and original literature. It has sufficient content resources and a high copyright advantage barrier.
Profit forecast:
Given the stability of the teaching aid textbook business and the steady growth of the general book business, we expect the company to achieve operating income of 133.86/14191/14932 billion yuan in 2023/2024/2025, net profit of 15.39/1678/1,88/1,821 billion yuan, and earnings per share of 0.86/0.93/1.01 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of PE on April 28, 2023, 16/15/14 times. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning:
Risk of macro-population decline; risk of book distribution falling short of expectations; risk of declining content appeal; risk of policies exceeding expectations.