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The biggest voice before the interest rate meeting in May! The Federal Reserve will enter a period of silence next week. What signals did the major voting boards reveal this week?

Zhitong Finance · Apr 21, 2023 12:19

来源：智通财经

美联储官员将从下周开始进入5月会议前的噤声期，本周已有多位政策制定者发表讲话。其中，美联储官员认为美国通胀依然过高，需要进一步加息以降低通胀；与此同时，还有官员表示了对银行业危机与经济衰退的担忧。

美联储3月公布的利率“点阵图”预测显示，在此之后还会有一次加息，然后今年将维持利率不变，最近一些政策制定者的言论也证实了这一观点。市场普遍也预计美联储将于5月份会议把目前4.75%至5%的联邦基金利率区间上调25个百分点。但是在降息方面，市场与美联储的预期并不一致。市场认为，由于银行业压力和经济衰退担忧，美联储将于今年下半年开始降息。

根据CME“美联储观察工具”，市场目前预计美联储将于5月份加息25个基点的概率为82.1%；随后，市场普遍认为美联储将于9月份开始降息，概率达41.7%。最终，在5月份最后加息25个基点的基础上，市场普遍预计美联储到12月份将降息50个基点至4.5%-4.75%，概率达36.7%。

哈克：美联储将采取更多行动降通胀

2023年FOMC票委、费城联储主席哈克(Patrick Harker)周四表示，美联储将不得不在政策方面采取更多措施，将居高不下的通胀压力降至2%的目标水平。哈克称：“可能需要一些额外的紧缩措施，以确保政策具有足够的限制性，以支持我们双重使命的两个支柱。一旦我们达到这个点，我预计我们将保持利率不变，让货币政策发挥作用。这应该在今年发生。”

哈克在讲话中指出，经济仍然强劲，通货膨胀正在下降，尽管速度缓慢。与目前个人消费支出(PCE)价格指数5%的年化涨幅相比，他预计今年的通胀率将降至3%至3.5%，2025年将降至2%。

哈克说，目前3.5%的失业率今年应该会上升到4.4%左右，而这段时期的经济增长将不温不火。哈克还认为，上个月的金融危机也会给经济带来压力。哈克补充称："评估近期事件对整体经济活动和通胀的影响将需要一些时间，我预计家庭和企业的信贷状况将趋紧，这可能减缓经济活动和就业，但整体程度仍不清楚。"

博斯蒂克：再加息一次，年内不降息

周四，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克(Raphael Bostic)重申了最近的评论，即他预计美联储将再加息一次，然后暂停加息并评估政策收紧对经济的影响。博斯蒂克表示，他仍然赞成再次加息，然后暂停，因为银行业的压力给美国经济带来了逆风。他称:“我们的政策与滞后性有关。我们将坚定地进入限制性空间。然后我认为是时候让限制性措施发挥作用了。这需要一些时间。”

博斯蒂克指出，自上月硅谷银行倒闭以来，金融环境已经收紧，“这开始为我们做一些工作”。不过，博斯蒂克表示，通胀仍过于强劲，不应考虑降息。他还预计经济不会陷入衰退。博斯蒂克的这番言论表明他不认为美联储今年内将进行降息。

梅斯特：须加息至5%以上

克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特(Loretta Mester)周四表示，鉴于通货膨胀确实顽固，她仍支持加息至5%以上，但升到5%以上的程度将取决于经济和金融形势。她在接受采访时表示：“我确实认为，考虑到顽固的通胀和依然强劲的劳动力市场，利率将不得不上升到5%以上的水平。但是他们需要提高多少，他们需要在那里停留多久，这是经济形势将告诉我们的。”

梅斯特表示，尽管取得了进展，但通胀仍然过高，并指出不包括住房在内的核心服务通胀并未改善。不过她认为，今年通货膨胀率将大幅改善，部分原因是就业市场放缓。

梅斯特还称，银行系统3月份经历的压力已经缓解，但一些利率上升和金融环境收紧的影响尚未显现，央行应该根据之前加息和信贷紧缩的效果，在加息幅度上保持“谨慎”。

威廉姆斯：再加息后暂停加息是“合理的”

纽约联储主席威廉姆斯(John Williams)上周表示，政策制定者的3月份预测显示今年将再加息一次，然后暂停加息，这是一个“合理的起点”。不过，他强调利率路径将取决于即将公布的经济数据。

本周三，威廉姆斯表示，通胀仍过高，官员们将利用货币政策来对抗通胀，达到2%通胀目标可能需要两年时间，预计通胀今年将降至3.25%。他说:“通胀最近有所放缓，最近的数据表明，通胀放缓的趋势仍在继续。虽然有迹象显示劳动力需求逐渐降温，但劳动力市场仍然非常紧张。我有信心，我们将达到并保持足够的限制性立场，使通胀降至2%的长期目标。”

不过，威廉姆斯表示，虽然银行业在美国历史上第二大银行倒闭后已经稳定下来，但最近的压力可能会使家庭和企业更难获得信贷，进而冲击家庭与企业的支出。

布拉德：衰退担忧被夸大，再加息50个基点

周二，圣路易斯联储主席布拉德(James Bullard)表示，赞成继续加息以应对持续的通胀。通胀正在下降，但没有华尔街预期的那么快。他认为美国经济衰退的担忧被夸大了。布拉德不同意最近盛行的美国今年温和衰退的判断。他表示，“劳动力市场似乎非常非常强劲。鉴于就业市场火爆将支撑强劲的消费，现在似乎还不是预测2023年下半年经济衰退的时候。”

布拉德最新支持将利率上调至比美联储最近利率“点阵图”预估中位数高约50个基点的水平，达到5.5%-5.75%的区间。这与他在3月下旬的观点一致。当时他表示，鉴于美国经济持续强劲，他提高了对今年利率峰值的预测，从5.375%升至5.625%。该预测是基于银行业压力将会缓解的假设。

此外，布拉德并不担心银行业危机，他表示，如果3月美国两家银行倒闭引发危机，那么它很可能会反映在圣路易斯联储的金融压力指数中。该指数在3月10日硅谷银行倒闭后确实飙升，但很快恢复到正常水平。就目前而言，看起来并没有发生太多事情。

编辑/Corrine

Source: Zhitong Finance

Federal Reserve officials will enter a period of silence before the May meeting starting next week. A number of policymakers have delivered speeches this week.Among them, Federal Reserve officials believe that US inflation is still too high and that further interest rate increases are needed to reduce inflation; at the same time, other officials expressed concern about the banking crisis and economic recession.

The interest rate “bitmap” forecast released by the Federal Reserve in March shows that there will be another rate hike after that, and then interest rates will remain unchanged this year. Recent statements by some policymakers also confirm this view. The market also generally expects the Federal Reserve to raise the current 4.75% to 5% federal funds rate range by 25 percentage points at its May meeting.However, in terms of interest rate cuts, the market is not in line with the Federal Reserve's expectations. The market believes that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in the second half of this year due to banking pressure and concerns about the economic recession.

According to the CME “Federal Reserve Observation Tool”, the market currently expects the probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in May is 82.1%; subsequently, the market generally believes that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in September, with a probability of 41.7%. In the end, on the basis of the last 25 basis points increase in interest rates in May, the market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 4.5%-4.75% by December, with a probability of reaching 36.7%.

Hack: The Federal Reserve will do more to reduce inflation

The 2023 FOMC voting committee and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Chairman Patrick Harker (Patrick Harker) said on Thursday,The Federal Reserve will have to take more policy measures to reduce the high inflationary pressure to the target level of 2%.“Some additional austerity measures may be needed to ensure that policies are sufficiently restrictive to support the two pillars of our dual mission,” Huck said. Once we reach this point, I expect we'll keep interest rates unchanged and let monetary policy work. This should happen this year.”

In his speech, Huck pointed out,The economy is still strong and inflation is falling, albeit slowly.Compared with the current 5% annualized increase in the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, he expects the inflation rate to fall to 3% to 3.5% this year and to 2% in 2025.

Huck said that the current 3.5% unemployment rate should rise to around 4.4% this year, and economic growth during this period will be tepid. Huck also believes that last month's financial crisis will also put pressure on the economy. Huck added, “It will take some time to assess the impact of recent events on overall economic activity and inflation. I expect the credit situation of households and businesses to tighten. This may slow economic activity and employment, but the overall extent is still unclear.”

Bostic: Raise interest rates again, no interest rate cuts during the year

On Thursday, Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Raphael Bostic (Raphael Bostic) reiterated recent comments.That is, he expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again, then suspend interest rate hikes and evaluate the impact of policy tightening on the economy.Bostic said he is still in favour of another rate hike and then suspended it because pressure from the banking industry has brought headwinds to the US economy. “Our policies are related to lags,” he said. We will resolutely enter restricted spaces. Then I thought it was time to let the restrictive measures work. It's going to take some time.”

Bostic pointed out that since Silicon Valley Bank went out of business last month, the financial environment has been tightened, and “this is starting to do some work for us.” However, Bostic said that inflation is still too strong and interest rate cuts should not be considered. He also doesn't expect the economy to fall into recession. Bostic's remarks indicate that he doesn't think the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates within this year.

Meester: Interest rate must be raised to at least 5%

Cleveland Federal Reserve Chairman Loretta Mester (Loretta Mester) said on Thursday,Given that inflation is really stubborn, she still supports raising interest rates above 5%, but the extent to which they rise above 5% will depend on the economic and financial situation.In an interview, she said, “I really think interest rates will have to rise above 5%, given the stubborn inflation and still strong labor market. But how much they need to improve and how long they need to stay there is what the economic situation will tell us.”

Meester said that despite progress, inflation is still too high, and pointed out that inflation in core services, excluding housing, has not improved. However, she believes that the inflation rate will improve drastically this year, partly because the job market is slowing down.

Meester also said that the pressure experienced by the banking system in March has abated, but the impact of some rising interest rates and the tightening of the financial environment has yet to be seen. The central bank should remain “cautious” in the range of interest rate hikes based on the effects of previous interest rate hikes and credit tightening.

Williams: It's “reasonable” to suspend rate hikes after another rate hike

New York Federal Reserve Chairman John Williams (John Williams) said last week that policymakers' March forecast indicates that interest rate increases will be raised once more this year and then suspended. This is a “reasonable starting point.” However, he emphasized that the interest rate path will depend on economic data to be released soon.

On Wednesday, Williams saidInflation is still too high. Officials will use monetary policy to counter inflation. It may take two years to reach the 2% inflation target. Inflation is expected to fall to 3.25% this year.“Inflation has recently slowed, and recent data shows that the trend of slowing inflation continues,” he said. Although there are signs that demand for labor is gradually cooling, the labor market is still very tight. I am confident that we will meet and maintain a sufficiently restrictive stance to bring inflation down to the long-term target of 2%.”

However, Williams said that although the banking industry has stabilized after the collapse of the second-largest bank in US history, recent pressure may make it more difficult for households and businesses to obtain credit, which in turn will impact household and business spending.

Bullard: Recession fears are exaggerated; interest rate hike by another 50 basis points

On Tuesday, St. Louis Federal Reserve Chairman James Bullard (James Bullard) saidI am in favour of continuing interest rate hikes to deal with continued inflation.Inflation is falling, but not as fast as Wall Street expected.He believes that fears of a recession in the US economy have been exaggerated.Brad disagrees with the recently prevailing judgment that America is in a moderate recession this year. He said, “The labor market appears to be very, very strong. Given that the boom in the job market will support strong consumption, it doesn't seem like the time to predict the recession in the second half of 2023.”

Bullard recently supported raising interest rates to a level about 50 basis points higher than the median estimate of the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate “bitmap”, reaching a range of 5.5%-5.75%. This is in line with his opinion in late March. At the time, he said that given the continued strength of the US economy, he raised his forecast for this year's interest rate peak from 5.375% to 5.625%. The forecast is based on the assumption that pressure on the banking sector will ease.

Furthermore, Brad is not worried about the banking crisis. He said that if the collapse of two US banks in March triggers a crisis, then it is likely to be reflected in the St. Louis Federal Reserve's financial stress index. The index did soar after the Bank of Silicon Valley went out of business on March 10, but it soon returned to normal levels. As it stands, it doesn't look like much has happened.

Editor/Corrine

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