The company released its 2022 annual report. In 2022, the company achieved operating income of 2,131 million yuan, an increase of 6.57% over the previous year, net profit of -76 million yuan and net profit of -98 million yuan after deducting non-net profit.
The company achieved operating income of 754 million yuan in Q4 2022, an increase of 9.42% over the previous year; the net profit of the mother was 95 million yuan, after deducting non-net profit - 102 million yuan.
Opinion: The marginal improvement in Q4 is obvious, and 2023 is expected to be a year of reversal of the plight.
In 2022, the company's performance was greatly affected due to rising prices of iodine raw materials and downstream formulations being constrained by collection pricing.
There was a marked marginal improvement on the revenue side during the quarter. Judging from the quarterly situation, Q1-Q4's revenue was 517 million yuan, 425 million yuan, 435 million yuan, and 754 million yuan respectively. The year-on-year growth rates were 42.08%, -13.41%, -4.60%, and 9.42%, respectively. The marginal improvement from Q2 to Q4 was quite obvious.
Q4 The profit side was affected by impairment of goodwill, and the actual endogenous improvement was obvious. The company reduced the goodwill formed from the acquisition of Poseidon Pharmaceuticals by an amount of 115 million yuan. If this influence is added back, the actual Q4 profit was positive, which also showed a marginal improvement trend.
We think 2023 is expected to be the year when the company's plight is reversed. Looking ahead to 2023, upstream iodine API prices are expected to drop, reducing the pressure on the company's cost side; the company's own iodopanol injections are expected to be collected and released; iodomepole was approved for sale in February 2023, and iodofol injections are also expected to be approved in 2023. Gadobepuramide has already been put into production, and the company's contrast agent formulation pipeline is gradually being enriched.
Profit forecasting and valuation. The company's revenue for 2023-2025 is estimated to be 2,482 million yuan, 2,983 million yuan, and 3.649 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of 16.5%, 20.2% and 22.3%, respectively; the net profit of the mother is 201 million yuan, 309 million yuan, and 443 million yuan respectively, turning a loss into a profit, +54.0% and +43.3%, respectively; corresponding PE is 31x, 20x and 14x respectively. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: risk of production safety of APIs; risk of fluctuations in API prices; risk of pharmaceutical sales falling short of expectations; risk of failure in research and development of new varieties; risk of industry policy risk.