The company's 2022 performance is in line with expectations, establishing a “advanced materials, advanced equipment” dual-engine strategic positioning for sustainable development. The prototype of a platform-based enterprise has already appeared. With the gradual release of new production capacity, the company's semiconductor business (semiconductor equipment, silicon carbide, etc.) and photovoltaic business (monocrystalline silicon growth furnaces, quartz crucibles, diamond wire, etc.) are expected to achieve rapid growth, supporting a revenue growth target of more than 60% for the whole year 2023. We raised the company's 2023-24 EPS forecast to 3.36/4.08 yuan, added the 2025 EPS forecast to 5.05 yuan, and gave the company a target price of 87 yuan (based on 26 times PE in 2023) to maintain the “buy” rating.
The performance was in line with expectations, and profits continued to grow at a high level. The company achieved revenue of 10.638 billion yuan (+785% YoY) in 2022, net profit of 2,924 billion yuan (+70.8% YoY), and gross profit margin of 36.7%, which remained stable from 2021. Overall performance was in line with expectations. Of these, 22Q4 achieved revenue of 3.18 billion yuan (+61.2% YoY, +2.7% QoQ), with net profit of 915 million yuan (+52.0% YoY, +14.1% QoQ). At the same time, the company disclosed its performance forecast for January-January 2023. It is expected that 23Q1 will achieve net profit of 80 to 900 million yuan, an increase of 80.9% to 103.5% over the previous year. The first-quarter performance slightly exceeded expectations, mainly due to the expansion of production and quality improvements in advanced materials businesses such as quartz crucibles and diamond wire.
“Equipment+materials” two-wheel drive, orders support long-term growth. (1) Equipment side: In 2022, the company's equipment and service business achieved revenue of 8.468 billion yuan (+70.2% YoY), with a gross profit margin of 40.8% (-1.8pcts YoY).
In 2022, the company strengthened market development for photovoltaic equipment while accelerating market verification and active promotion of semiconductor equipment, and order volume increased rapidly over the same period last year. By the end of 2022, the company had not completed contracts for crystal growth equipment and intelligent processing equipment totaling 25.423 billion yuan, of which 3.392 billion yuan had not been completed for semiconductor equipment, supporting long-term performance growth. (2) Materials side: In 2022, the company's materials business achieved revenue of 1,455 billion yuan (+273.6% YoY), with a gross profit margin of 39.0% (+14.5pcts), actively promoting the development of auxiliary materials and consumables business such as quartz crucibles and diamond wire. With the gradual release of expanded production capacity, the quartz crucible business achieved rapid growth.
Continuously promoting R&D innovation and setting business goals shows confidence. In 2022, the company invested 796 million yuan in R&D (+125.2% YoY), and continuous R&D investment ensures competitive advantage. (1) In terms of semiconductor equipment, the company's 12-inch long-crystal, slicing, grinding, polishing, thinning and other equipment has been sold in batches, and product quality has reached the international advanced level. (2) In terms of photovoltaic equipment, the company has laid out core product systems on the silicon wafer end, battery end and module side, and the fifth-generation new monocrystalline furnace is expected to enter the market in 2023. (3) In terms of power semiconductor equipment, the company has successfully developed industry-leading 6-inch two-chip silicon carbide epitaxial equipment, greatly reducing downstream production costs and improving industry efficiency. Furthermore, in its 2022 annual report, the company clearly stated its business goals for 2023: the company will continue to strengthen its core competitiveness in the equipment field, achieve new orders for battery equipment and module equipment to exceed 3 billion yuan, materials business sales exceed 5 billion yuan, and overall annual revenue increased by more than 60% year-on-year, demonstrating confidence.
Risk factors: The expansion of the silicon wafer industry fell short of expectations; the company's orders fell short of expectations; the expansion of the company's semiconductor customers fell short of expectations, etc.
Profit forecasting, valuation and ratings: Based on the company's financial reports, considering that the company's equipment business orders are full, the materials business is expected to achieve rapid growth with the gradual introduction of new production capacity, supporting annual operating goals. The company's 2023-24 net profit forecast was raised to 4,396/5.345 billion yuan (the original forecast was 3.4000/4.113 billion yuan), and the 2025 net profit forecast was increased by 6.614 billion yuan. The corresponding EPS forecast was 3.36/4.08/5.05 yuan respectively, and the current price corresponding to PE was 19/16/13 times. Combined with the average PE expected by comparable companies (Jiejia Weichuang, Autovie, Ou Jing Technology) based on Wind's unanimous forecast of 26 times in 2023, considering the company's “advanced equipment and advanced materials” two-wheel drive, the company was given 26 times the PE in 2023, corresponding to the target price of 87 yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating.