上海钢联(300226):具备数据&场景优势 LLM有望赋能

Shanghai Steel Federation (300226): LLM with data & scenario advantages is expected to empower

華泰證券 ·  04/14  · Researches

There are good card slots in industry data and scenarios, maintaining the publication of annual reports by “buy” rating companies. The revenue for 2022 was 76.567 billion yuan, an increase of 16.4%, net profit of 203 million yuan, an increase of 14.1%, after deducting non-net profit of 170 million yuan, the same increase of 14.1%; 22Q4's single-quarter revenue was 17.553 million yuan, a decrease of 10.1%, and Guimu's net profit was 65 million yuan, an increase of 220.2%, the same increase of 572.5%. The company has good card slots in terms of industry data and scenarios. According to segmental valuation, industry data service revenue is estimated at 888 million yuan in 2023, with an average of 23E11.8xps (Wind) for comparable companies, giving 23E 11.8xps; steel and silver e-commerce contributed 23E 177 million yuan in net profit to listed companies, and an average of 23E 31.2xPE (Wind) for comparable companies, giving 23E 31.2xPE, with a target price of 60.18 yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating.

Industry data: Subscriptions grew rapidly. AI technology boosted data service capacity to increase industry data service revenue by 691 million yuan in 2022, an increase of 13.5%; data subscription service revenue was 419 million yuan, an increase of 22.0%; revenue from business promotion services was 153 million yuan, an increase of 5.9%; revenue from conference and training services was 51 million yuan, a decrease of 20.0%; research and consulting business revenue was 47 million yuan, an increase of 3.4% over the same period.

The company actively uses AI technology to empower data services: it labels alternative data such as satellite remote sensing, shipping and cargo flow, and combines AI technology to present industry chain trends; uses AI technologies such as knowledge mapping, NLP and deep learning to provide powerful search capabilities; it has tried to develop industry-specific big language models based on open source big language models, and strives to achieve automatic or assisted generation of information content through AIGC technology to improve the company's content productivity and editors' work efficiency at a low cost.

Trading sector: Platform settlement volume & number of users continues to grow

In 2022, revenue from supply chain services was 71,299 billion yuan, an increase of 21.3% over the same period, and revenue from the consignment business was 4,502 billion yuan, a decrease of 28.6%. Total orders for supply chain services and consignment were 872,900, up 8.4% year over year.

The number of registered users on the platform was 169,000, an increase of 9.8%, the number of merchants was 0.88 million, an increase of 13.3%, and the number of active users was 30,400, an increase of 8.1%. The settlement volume on the platform was 52,9715 million tons, an increase of 14.8% over the same period.

The platform's trading volume continues to expand, and the number of active users continues to grow, which is an important driving force for the continued growth of the trading sector. In 2022, Steel and Silver Cloud SaaS products will fully begin a new stage of “customization” to meet the digital transformation of steel companies through cloud technology. As the “Steel Silver Cloud SaaS” ecosystem layout continues to advance, the company's steel trading services are expected to grow steadily.

Data accumulation+scenario advantages are expected to benefit from the fact that big language model technology promotion companies are deeply involved in the commodity industry data field. They have multi-dimensional data collection capabilities, deep data accumulation and standardized data management advantages. 119 new data sources, more than 30,000 new indicators, and more than 1.2 billion data volumes were added in 2022, and data accumulation continues to strengthen. In addition, the company has various scenarios related to data analysis and content generation, such as data terminal products and research services. It has a full layout of data collection, processing, and application. It has rich implementation scenarios for AI technology applications, or benefits from the promotion of big language model technology.

Risk warning: The risk that the expansion of industrial data services is lower than expected, and the risk that e-commerce transaction volume of steel and silver will decline.

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