公司2022 年全年实现营业总收入418.82 亿元，同比增长8.18%，实现归母净利润19.08 亿元，同比增长39.35%。其中2022 年第四季度实现营收118.4 亿元，同比下降1.06%，环比下降7.6%，实现归母净利润4.83 亿元，同比增长59.07%，环比下降28.23%。公司业绩持续超预期主要系铅蓄电池贡献，一方面下游两轮车在2022 年下半年销量快速增长，且马太效应显著，公司市占率提升；另一方面定价机制调整后叠加辅材管控，铅蓄电池业务毛利率快速提升。Investment events
The company achieved total revenue of 41,882 billion yuan for the full year of 2022, an increase of 8.18% over the previous year, and achieved net profit of 1,908 billion yuan to the mother, an increase of 39.35% over the previous year.
Performance exceeded expectations, profits grew faster than revenue
The company achieved total revenue of 41,882 billion yuan for the full year of 2022, an increase of 8.18% over the previous year, and achieved net profit of 1,908 billion yuan to the mother, an increase of 39.35% over the previous year. Among them, the fourth quarter of 2022 achieved revenue of 11.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.06%, a decrease of 7.6% from the previous month, and the net profit of the mother was 483 million yuan, an increase of 59.07% over the previous year and a decrease of 28.23% from the previous month. The company's performance continued to exceed expectations mainly due to lead-acid batteries. On the one hand, sales of downstream two-wheelers increased rapidly in the second half of 2022, and the Matthew effect was remarkable, and the company's market share increased; on the other hand, after the pricing mechanism was adjusted, superimposed auxiliary materials control, and the gross margin of the lead-acid battery business increased rapidly.
Lead-lithium dual technology solutions go hand in hand, and the energy storage business is rapidly expanding
In the future, the company will focus on the energy storage business and adopt a lead-carbon+lithium battery dual technology plan. In terms of lithium battery energy storage, the company has achieved mass production of 180Ah batteries and sampled 280Ah cells, developed 5 air-cooled and 4 liquid-cooled modules, and achieved lithium battery energy storage revenue of 563 million yuan in 2022. With the liberalization of wall-mounted electricity sales policies in Zhejiang, Shandong and other places, the economy of industrial and commercial energy storage will be further improved, and the company's industrial and commercial energy storage will be released rapidly. The lead charcoal energy storage application scenario is mainly on the user side with high personnel intensity. The company achieved lead-carbon energy storage revenue of 165 million yuan in 2022, an increase of 238.57% over the previous year. Previously, the company signed a cooperation agreement with Taihu Energy Valley to provide lead-carbon batteries of no less than 30 GWh from 2023-2025, which will contribute to the company's incremental performance.
The lead-acid battery business is growing steadily, and the basic market continues to be stable
Lead-acid batteries are the cornerstone business of the company. In 2022, revenue was 37.397 billion yuan, an increase of 11.62% over the previous year. Among them, lead-acid light vehicles achieved revenue of 36.035 billion yuan, an increase of 11.4% over the previous year. The source of revenue growth was the concentration of downstream two-wheelers, and the company's market share in the new car market increased. Lead-acid battery gross margin in 2022 has increased to 20.28% from 17.69% in 2021. Since it has performance advantages such as low cost and wide temperature range, we believe that the application of lead-acid materials in the fields of light vehicles, start/stop, and energy storage is irreplaceable in the long term.
Profit forecasting and valuation
The profit forecast was lowered to maintain the “buy” rating: the company's lead-acid battery downstream two-wheelers are growing steadily, and lead-carbon energy storage batteries are expected to exceed expectations. Considering the adverse effects of lithium carbonate price fluctuations on lithium battery energy storage shipments, net profit returned to the mother for 2023-2024 was reduced to 2,409.7 billion yuan (2,505 million yuan before the reduction, 3.5 billion yuan before the reduction), and the forecast for additional 2025 was 3.722 billion yuan. The corresponding EPS for 23-25 was 2.48, 3.16, and 3.83 yuan respectively. The corresponding PE was 14, 11, and 9 times, respectively. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Demand for electric light vehicles fell short of expectations; expansion of new production capacity fell short of expectations; risk of large fluctuations in raw material prices.