郑煤机(601717):煤机板块行稳致远 汽零板块弹性可期

Zheng Coal Machine (601717): The coal machine sector is stable, and the elasticity of the Ziyuan Automobile Zero sector can be expected

廣發證券 ·  04/01  · Researches

Core views:

According to the annual report, the company's net profit to the mother in 2022 was +30.3% compared to the same period last year, and the performance was impressive. In '22, the company achieved revenue of 32.04 billion yuan, +9.4% year on year; net profit returned to the mother after deduction was 2,54/2,02 billion yuan respectively, +30.3/+12.4%, respectively, compared with the previous year. Among them, 22Q4 achieved revenue of 8.25 billion yuan, +13.0/ +0.1% respectively over the same period last month; net profit returned to the mother after deduction was 58/360 million yuan respectively, +55.5/ +6.3% year-on-year, respectively, and +15.9/ -27.2% month-on-month respectively. The gross margins, net interest rates, and period expenses ratios in '22 were 20.7/8.2/10.7%, respectively, and -1.2/+1.1/-2.9pct, respectively. The expense ratio declined significantly year-on-year, demonstrating the company's good expense management and control capabilities.

Coal machine sector: The coal industry has maintained a good development trend, and orders for coal machinery business have continued to grow. In '22, the company's coal machinery sector achieved net revenue/net profit of 16.76/2.51 billion yuan, which was +28.1/ +20.0% respectively over the previous year. Among them, the 22Q4 company's coal machinery sector achieved revenue of 4.43 billion yuan, +25.1/ -0.8% respectively over the same period last month; it achieved net profit of 650 million yuan to the mother, which was +53.5/ +11.2% respectively over the same period last month.

Auto parts sector: ASIMCO's profits are resilient, SEG has reversed losses, and the auto parts business is transforming at an accelerated pace.

In '22, the company's auto parts sector achieved revenue of 15.29 billion yuan, -5.7% year on year; Guimu's net profit was 300 million yuan, a sharp increase of 28.6 times over the previous year. Among them, ASIMCO achieved revenue of 3.45 billion yuan in '22, or -17.0% year on year, mainly due to the slump in the domestic commercial vehicle market; SEG achieved revenue of 11.87 billion yuan, or -1.6% year on year. Mainly due to fluctuations in the exchange rate of the euro against the RMB, SEG turned a loss into profit and achieved net profit of 0.5 billion yuan, an increase of 280 million yuan over the previous year.

Profit forecasts and investment suggestions: The company is an outstanding high-end manufacturing enterprise led by a management with a methodology and a focus on medium- to long-term development strategies after the governance structure has been further optimized. The growth of coal machines comes from intelligence and integration, and zero growth of steam comes from internationalization and new energy sources. We expect the company's EPS for 23-25 to be 1.76/2.18/2.62 yuan/share, maintaining a reasonable value of A-shares at $25.2. Corresponding to 23-24 PE valuations were 14.3/11.6 times, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating; considering exchange rate factors, the reasonable value of H shares was adjusted to HK$23.9 (exchange rate based on HKD: RMB 1.14), corresponding to PE valuation in 23-24 years of 11.9/9.6 times, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.

Risk warning: The prosperity of the coal industry is declining; the integration and development of the auto parts business falls short of expectations, etc.

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