Incidents: In 2022, the company achieved revenue of 12.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 48.6%; realized net profit of -3.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 166.7%; net profit after deducting non-return to the mother was 490 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 218.4%.
Among them, the company achieved revenue of 5.37 billion yuan in the fourth quarter, up 21.3% year on year and 252.3% month on month.
The trend of large-scale fans and commercialization of deep-sea floating models is clear, and offshore wind power leaders are benefiting. In 2022, the large-scale expansion of wind turbines accelerated. Onshore R&D stations were 8MW-10MW and more than 10MW, offshore 10MW became a new starting point, and 15MW and above were the focus of preliminary research. At the same time, offshore resources are becoming more saturated, and offshore wind power is gradually moving towards deep water and offshore. According to GWEC data, the “14th Five-Year Plan” period was a floating pre-commercialization stage. It is estimated that the global floating new installed capacity will reach 1,166 MW in 2026, with a compound growth rate of 83%. In December 2022, the company successfully launched the world's first Fengyu integrated floating fan. Combined with the accumulated advantages of the company's Seabreeze technology, it is expected that floating will benefit from new performance increases in the medium to long term.
Considering “α+beta”, the company's annual performance recovery can be expected. Although the company's performance declined severely throughout the year due to factors such as changes in subsidy policies, repeated epidemics, and falling tender prices in 2022, the company maintained Haifeng's leading position in new installations, with a market share of 28% in 2022. Along with lower downstream construction costs, the trend of Haifeng commencing construction in 2023 is improving. It is expected to achieve 8-10 GW of installed capacity throughout the year, doubling the year-on-year increase, and Haifeng's leader is expected to recover. In addition, on the product side, the wind turbine capacity of the company's onshore drilling platform covers 5MW-8MW, and the offshore shenplatform wind turbine capacity covers 12MW-16MW and can be expanded to 18MW; on the industrial chain side: it has mastered R&D technology for upstream core components such as blades, drive chains, mixing towers, etc., where blades have already been built, mixing towers, gearboxes and generators have been applied to reduce costs; at the same time, actively promote downstream wind farm development, investment, operation and maintenance services to raise profit levels.
Intelligent product upgrades have been accelerated, and on-hand orders are full to support scale expansion. In September 2022, the first EW8.5-230 fan on the “Poseidon” Poseidon platform completed hoisting, setting the world's record for the largest wind turbine diameter fan that has been lifted, leading offshore wind power to officially enter the 230-meter wind turbine era; in December 2022, the EW11.0-208 fan equipped with the “Petrel” Haiyan platform achieved grid-connected power generation, setting a new stand-alone capacity record for fans connected to the grid. In addition, the company added 6206MW orders in 2022, an increase of 106.1% over the previous year. Of these, it has won the bid for 808MW of unsigned contracts, with a cumulative total of 9790.2 MW in hand, an increase of 23.2% over the previous year.
Profit forecasts and investment recommendations. The company's revenue for 2023-2025 is estimated to be 16.13 billion yuan, 20.03 billion yuan, and 23.94 billion yuan respectively. Benefiting from the recovery of the Haifeng industry, the company's net profit is expected to recover significantly in the next three years. It is expected to turn a loss into a profit in 23, with a year-on-year growth rate of 153.56%/56.43% in 24-25, respectively. The offshore wind power business has broad market space, and the overall market has been improving in 23 years. The company focused on optimizing the technology platform and laying out core components, which is expected to enhance the company's profitability and maintain its “holding” rating.
Risk warning: risk of shortage of delivery of core components; risk of rising raw material prices; risk of national support and guidance policy adjustments; risk that demand for wind power orders falls short of expectations and capacity utilization falls short of expectations.