Western Digital Analyst Re-Rates As Weak NAND Pricing Weigh On Micron's 2Q Due To Demand-Supply Imbalance; Expects Some Respite In 2H23
Western Digital Analyst Re-Rates As Weak NAND Pricing Weigh On Micron's 2Q Due To Demand-Supply Imbalance; Expects Some Respite In 2H23
西部数据分析师重新评级，因为由于供需失衡，疲软的NAND定价打压了美光第二季度；预计23年下半年会有一些喘息的机会
- Benchmark analyst Mark Miller reiterated a Hold rating on Western Digital Corp (NASDAQ:WDC).
- Due to industry oversupply, Micron Technology, Inc (NASDAQ:MU) NAND ASPs fell by mid-20% sequentially, resulting in negative margins.
- NAND pricing is below cash cost. Also impacting margins was a $1.43 billion inventory write-down. Before the write-down, inventories had swelled to record levels. The free cash flow was an outflow of $1.8 billion.
- The firm guided to a more significant than expected loss for 3Q.
- Customer inventories are down in several end markets. As a result, Micron expects an improving supply-demand balance in the months ahead with higher bit shipments.
- However, 2023 will be a challenging year for industry profitability. DRAM and NAND demand growth in 2023 will likely be below the long-term CAGRs.
- Data Center inventories will likely be healthy by the end of 2023.
- Micron believes its Data Center revenues have bottomed and sees sales growth in 3Q.
- Micron sees PC unit sales declining by a mid-single-digit percent in 2023 versus a high teen percent decline in 2022.
- Although still elevated, PC customer inventories have improved meaningfully.
- After falling 10% last year, Mobile demand in 2023 will likely be slightly down.
- NAND bit demand will likely grow by low teens in 2023. DRAM bit demand will likely grow 5% in 2023.
- Micron's reported 2Q sales of $3.69 billion were $10 million below consensus expectations. The non-GAAP net loss was ($1.91) per diluted share. The inventory write-down impacted earnings by $1.34/share.
- Non-GAAP gross margins were a negative 31.4% versus 21.9% reported in the prior quarter and 47.2% in 2Q22.
- Under-utilization charges will likely be $0.9 billion in FY23, with almost half of these charges will be in 3Q.
- Micron's non-GAAP 3Q EPS guidance for a net loss range of ($1.51) to ($1.65) per diluted share was below investor expectations of ($0.90) per diluted share, while the F3Q23 sales guidance range of $3.50 billion to $3.9 billion compared to investors' sales expectation of $3.70 billion.
- Price Action: WDC shares traded higher by 5.04% at $36.35 on the last check Wednesday.
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- 基准 分析师 马克·米勒重申了持有评级 西部数据公司 （纳斯达克股票代码：WDC）。
- 由于行业供过于求， 美光科技公司 纳斯达克股票代码：MU）NAND ASP环比下跌-20％左右，导致利润率为负。
- NAND 的定价低于现金成本。影响利润率的还有14.3亿美元的库存减记。在减记之前，库存已激增至创纪录的水平。自由现金流外流为18亿美元。
- 该公司预计第三季度的亏损将超过预期。
- 多个终端市场的客户库存有所下降。因此，美光预计，随着比特出货量的增加，未来几个月的供需平衡将得到改善。
- 但是，对于行业盈利能力而言，2023年将是充满挑战的一年。2023年的DRAM和NAND需求增长可能会低于长期的复合年增长率。
- 到 2023 年底，数据中心库存可能会保持健康。
- 美光认为其数据中心收入已触底，预计第三季度销售将增长。
- 美光预计，个人电脑销量在2023年下降了中等个位数百分比，而2022年下降了十个百分点。
- 尽管仍然很高，但个人电脑客户库存已得到显著改善。
- 在去年下降了10％之后，2023年的移动需求可能会略有下降。
- 到2023年，NAND比特的需求可能会以较低的速度增长。到2023年，DRAM比特的需求可能会增长5％。
- 美光公布的第二季度销售额为36.9亿美元，比市场普遍预期低1000万美元。非公认会计准则净亏损为摊薄后每股亏损1.91美元。库存减记影响了每股收益1.34美元。
- 非公认会计准则毛利率为负31.4％，而上一季度为21.9％，22年第二季度为47.2％。
- 在23财年，未充分利用的费用可能为9亿美元，其中将近一半将在第三季度支付。
- 美光的非公认会计准则第三季度每股收益预期为摊薄后每股净亏损区间（1.51美元）至（1.65美元），低于投资者预期的摊薄后每股（0.90美元），而 F3Q23 的销售指导区间为35.0亿美元至39亿美元，而投资者的销售预期为37.0亿美元。
- 价格走势： 在周三的最后一张支票中，WDC股价上涨了5.04％，至36.35美元。
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