Full-year income performance continued to be under pressure, with asset disposal contributing to Q4 earnings. In 2022, the company realized operating income of 19.934 billion yuan, year-on-year-5.49% (adjusted), homed net profit of 3.14 billion yuan, year-on-year-10.71% (adjusted), non-homed net profit of 2.615 billion yuan, year-on-year-23.39% (adjusted), EPS of 1.86 yuan per share, and proposed 10 payouts of 6.55 yuan (including tax). Q4 realized operating income of 4.624 billion yuan in a single quarter,-10.44% of the same period last year, and net profit of 792 million yuan, + 0.64% of the same period last year, deducting 362 million yuan of net profit of non-return of the parent, or-51.6% of the same period last year. Among them, 437 million yuan of asset disposal income mainly contributed to the compensation for land repurchase of Suzhou Industrial Park.
The advantage of plasterboard pricing power is highlighted, and the waterproofing business is still under pressure. According to the products: 1) the income of plasterboard is 13.365 billion yuan, which is-3.01% compared with the same period last year, accounting for 67.04%. The sales volume of plasterboard is 2.093 billion flat, which is-11.98% compared with the same period last year. Under the background of demand pressure, the sales volume decreased significantly, and the company transmitted cost pressure by raising prices. The overall performance of revenue is better than sales volume. We estimate that the unit price of plasterboard sales is 6.39 yuan per square meter, 10.2% year on year, unit cost 4.15 yuan per square meter, year on year + 14.2%, unit gross margin 2.23 yuan per square meter, gross profit 34.95%, year-on-year-2.3pp, although the gross profit margin has declined, it remains relatively high, which shows the company's pricing power under the high market share. 2) Light steel keel income 2.517 billion yuan, year-on-year-8.66%, accounting for 12.63%, gross profit margin 18.94%, year-on-year + 0.51pct 3) the income of the waterproofing division is 3.145 billion yuan, year-on-year-18.8%, accounting for 15.78%, of which waterproof roll material / waterproof paint / waterproofing project is 21.6 million yuan, 445 million yuan, respectively, year-on-year-15.2% picks 16.0% picks up 34.9%, waterproof roll material gross profit margin 17.25%, year-on-year-10.10pp, waterproofing income and profits continue to be under pressure due to the depressed real estate demand and rising costs.
The cash flow is excellent and resilient, and the capital and debt structure remains robust. In 2022, the company realized operating net cash flow of 3.664 billion yuan,-4.3% compared with the same period last year, of which Q4 was 2.16 billion yuan in a single quarter, + 13.9% compared with the same period last year. By the end of 2022, the company's asset-liability ratio was only 25.0%, year-on-year-1.49pp, interest-bearing debt ratio 16.4%, year-on-year-2.1pp, highlighting a high-quality and robust capital-debt structure.
Risk tips: real estate demand is lower than expected; raw materials rise faster than expected; waterproofing business integration is not as expected; channel expansion is not as expected.
Investment suggestions: optimize channel positioning to help development, be optimistic about long-term growth, maintain "buy" rating companies as plasterboard leaders, continue to consolidate the leading advantages in cost and scale, continue to increase market share, and actively optimize channel positioning, vigorously expand the retail business of counties and townships and home improvement, lay the foundation for long-term development, accelerate the expansion of waterproofing, and promote the paint steadily. It is expected to benefit from the profit flexibility and growth space brought by the new waterproofing regulations and downward costs, and is optimistic about the improvement on the demand side and the company's long-term growth. It is estimated that in 23-25, the EPS will be 2.02 EPS 2.37 shock 2.74 yuan per share, corresponding to 14.1 shock 12.0 shock 10.4x, maintaining the "buy" rating.