信达证券:线下经济活动恢复 保险消费有望继续回暖

Cinda Securities: Offline economic activity resumes, insurance consumption is expected to continue to pick up

Zhitong Finance ·  03/17 14:38

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Cinda Securities released a research report saying that after continuous clean-up reforms in the insurance industry in recent years, the current debt side of the industry is expected to gradually break out of the “bottom” stage. The premium performance of major insurers in February was full of highlights. With the promotion and completion of life insurance marketing activities for a good start in 2023, insurance products and savings products are expected to contribute more incrementally. With the further deepening of life insurance reforms and product restructuring by major insurers, the effects of related reforms are expected to be further demonstrated.As offline economic activity continues to resume, insurance consumption is expected to continue to pick up.

On the target, the bank suggests focusing on the effects of “Operation Changhang”. China Taibao (601601.SH), which is expected to lead the debt-side performance, China Ping An (601318.SH), which is expected to benefit more from real estate improvements and a huge team of high-quality agents, and China Life Insurance (), which is expected to benefit more from improvements in real estate and a huge team of high-quality agents, and China Life Insurance (), which has steady and steady performance on the debt-side. 601628.SH


Listed insurers released premium data for January-February 2023. Among them, the cumulative growth rate of life insurance premiums for the first 2 months was: Ping An Life (YoY +5.1%) > China Life Insurance (YoY +1.9%) > Xinhua (YoY -0.1%) > Renmin Insurance (-7.1%); cumulative financial insurance premiums for the first 2 months grew year-on-year: Taibao (YoY +18.5%) > People's Insurance (YoY +9.2%) > Ping An Cai (YoY +5.1%).

▍ The main views of Cinda Securities are as follows:

The overall monthly premiums for life insurance have grown rapidly, and the inflection point on the debt side may gradually approach.

The overall premium performance of major listed insurers in February 2023 was excellent. With the exception of Taibao (YoY -5.1%), the premiums in a single month all achieved relatively rapid growth. After the Spring Festival ended, major insurers continued to carry out good marketing activities, and overall life insurance premiums picked up rapidly in February.

Monthly premium growth rate in February 2023: People's Insurance (YoY +53.0%) > China Life Insurance (YoY +28.8%) > Ping An Life (YoY +7.1%) > Xinhua (YoY +6.2%) > Taibao Life (YoY -5.1%); January-February cumulative premium growth rate: Ping An Life Insurance (YoY +5.1%) > China Life Insurance (YoY +1.9%) > Xinhua (YoY -0.1%) > Life Insurance (-7.1%).

Overall, with the gradual deepening of the life insurance reform process of major insurers, the effects of improving life insurance business performance are gradually showing. Currently, offline economic activity is also gradually returning to normal. After the Spring Festival, as major insurers step up their promotion of good marketing activities during the post-Spring Festival period, the product supply side is also expected to experience more growth, and monthly life insurance premiums may be expected to continue to improve marginal.

Furthermore, against the backdrop of a relatively low base in 2022 and rising demand for savings products, the life insurance NBV gap of major listed insurers is also expected to gradually narrow. It is expected that the NBV of life insurance companies of listed insurers is expected to correct year-on-year for the full year of 2023.

Financial insurance maintained a high level of prosperity, and premiums picked up rapidly in February.

The premium growth rate of listed property insurers remained high in 2023. The cumulative premiums of People's Insurance, Ping An Cai, and Taibao Cai in January-February all increased by more than 5% year-on-year. Taibao Finance (YoY +18.5%) > People Insurance (YoY +9.2%) > Ping An Cai (YoY +5.1%), where Ping An Cai relied on +21.3% year-on-month performance in February to achieve a year-on-year increase in cumulative premiums for the previous 2 months (-2.1% compared to the same month in January).

Financial insurance premiums of major listed insurers all achieved 20% + year-on-year premiums in February: Taibao Cai (YoY +34.5%) > People's Insurance (YoY +24.6%) > Ping An Cai (YoY +21.3%).

As the epidemic policy continues to be optimized and offline social and economic activity fully returns to normal, premiums of major listed financial insurance companies Renmin Bao Cai, Ping An Cai and Taibao Cai are expected to reach double-digit growth throughout the year.

According to CPC data, in February 2023, retail sales of passenger cars in the narrow sense and passenger cars in the broad sense were +10.3% and +10.4%, respectively, and +7.7% and +9.0% respectively compared to January. Passenger car sales picked up after the Spring Festival.

People's Insurance Finance's car insurance premiums in January-February 2023 were +6.3% year on year, and monthly premiums in February were +18.2% year on year. The monthly year-on-year growth rate increased sharply compared to January. At the same time, with various passenger car price reduction promotions carried out across the country recently, passenger car sales are expected to rise further in the short term, which in turn will drive up car insurance premiums for listed financial insurance companies.

On the non-auto insurance side, overall premiums maintained good performance. In particular, agricultural insurance and credit guarantee insurance grew rapidly. In the first 2 months of 2023, premiums for People's Insurance Agricultural Insurance and Credit Guarantee Insurance were +26.5% and 17.8%, respectively, compared with the same period last year.

Overall, the bank believes that property insurers may increase their efforts to innovate and develop non-auto insurance products in the future. Leading property insurers are expected to continuously improve their profit levels through accurate rate pricing, efficient cost management, and refined operation, and continue to optimize cost control and boost performance.

Risk Factors:

The reform of insurers fell short of expectations, the increase in the number of high-quality agents fell short of expectations, the results of good marketing campaigns fell short of expectations, and there were many natural disasters that exceeded expectations.

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