九洲药业(603456)公司研究报告:绑定诺华成功转型CDMO 加快产能建设 看好公司未来“原料药+制剂”一体化CDMO高速发展

Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical (603456) Company Research Report: Binding Novartis to Successfully Transforming CDMO to Accelerate Production Capacity Building, Optimistic about the Company's Future Rapid Development of “AP+Formulation” Integrated CDMO

海通證券 ·  03/10  · Researches

In the past, cut into the Novartis supply chain to complete the CDMO strategic transformation. The deep cooperation with Novartis led to the rapid development of CDMO business of Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Company from 2018 to 2021, verified the company's world-class CDMO capability, cut into the global standardized market supply chain system, the scarcity of the platform, and the first acceptance of follow-up domestic orders, which laid the foundation for our understanding of the accelerated development of the company.

Look at now, equity incentives bound to the core backbone, set to increase fund-raising to speed up capacity construction. Since 2017, the company has implemented four equity incentives, and the 2022 restricted Stock incentive Plan (draft) has encouraged a total of 297 people, of which 87% of the company's middle managers and core backbones have been granted. The company has acquired and integrated Novartis Suzhou Plant, Taihua Pharmaceutical and Chemical Hangzhou Plant and Sanders Zhongshan preparation Plant, which has been increased by 2.5 billion yuan, which is mainly used for CDMO capacity construction, that is, 1.2 billion yuan for Taizhou CDMO production capacity phase I project and 560 million yuan for Suzhou API CDMO project.

Look to the future, do deep big customers, do wide and small customers, strengthen the "API + preparation" integrated CDMO platform capabilities. With the completion of the integration of the three major factories, the continuous improvement of the construction of the integrated platform of "API + preparation", the continuous release of the sales potential of Novartis blockbuster varieties, the transfer of certification of Novartis other pipeline varieties, the rapid relay of domestic innovative drug projects, and the resumption of production in Jiangsu Ruike, the company's CDMO business is expected to achieve long-term rapid growth.

Match the company's market development strategy of "being a deep big customer" and "being a wide and small customer". The transition from the platform verification period to the performance accelerated cash period the high-quality CDMO platform has gradually moved from the capacity-building period to the order and performance accelerated cash period.

Profit forecast and valuation. We forecast that the company's net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 930 million yuan, 1.241 billion yuan and 1.661 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 46.7%, 33.5% and 30.9% respectively. With reference to the valuation of comparable companies, considering the "CDMO key customer + Raw material Drug" two-wheel drive model of Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., we give it 35-40 times PE in 2023, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 48.30-55.20 yuan, with a rating of "better than the big market".

Risk hint. Innovative drug quality problems and sales below expectations, technology upgrading replacement risk, market competition risk, environmental protection and safety risk, exchange rate fluctuation risk.

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