Air-conditioning pipe market space continues to expand, air-conditioning pipe leader is expected to take the lead to benefit. Due to the difference of pipeline design, the average bicycle value of fuel vehicle air-conditioning pipeline is 150-200yuan, while the average bicycle value of PTC pure tram and heat pump pure tram air-conditioning pipeline can reach 400,500yuan and 700800yuan respectively. We predict that in 2025, the domestic air conditioning pipeline market for new energy vehicles is expected to reach 6.6 billion yuan, with CAGR about 25%. In the future, with the growth of new energy vehicle sales, the air conditioning pipeline market will continue to expand, and the company is expected to continue to seize market share by virtue of its advantages in profitability, capacity layout, customer channels and so on.
New thermal management products such as CO2 module, electronic water pump and gas-liquid separator emerge in endlessly. The company actively distributes the new thermal management products in addition to the main business of air-conditioning pipes, in which the CO2 heat pump module has been designated by Volkswagen MEB and will achieve mass production in 23 years. Under the general trend of refrigerant switching in the future, the company's CO2 business scale is expected to gradually expand. In addition, the company has successfully mass-produced excellent items such as electronic water pumps and gas-liquid separators, and matched new energy customers such as BYD, contributing pure increments to the company in the future.
With the warming of commercial vehicles and the release of hybrid cars, the margin of EGR business is good. The company has a complete industrial chain R & D and production capacity from parts to EGR system, from upstream cooler shell manufacturing to core components such as EGR cooler and EGR valve are independently manufactured by the company, with customers covering Hanang, Mahler, Jiangling, Yuchai and other diesel engine customers and Jiangling, Mengjie and other passenger car customers. In the future, commercial vehicles hit bottom and rebound, superimposed hybrid vehicle volume drives passenger vehicle EGR penetration up, and the company's EGR business will improve in an all-round way.
Automotive hose performance inflection point is coming, the new project to complete the air conditioning pipe product matrix. Benefiting from the improvement of policies such as the liberalization of the domestic epidemic and the electrification of buses, commercial vehicle sales are expected to pick up in the future, and Beijing Tianyuan will also usher in a performance inflection point. In addition, the company actively gives full play to Beijing Tianyuan's technical advantages in the field of hose and distributes air-conditioning hose products. After the low-pressure hose products in the convertible bond raising project are put into production in 2022, the company will effectively make up for the gap in the field of air-conditioning low-pressure pipes and improve the company's overall profitability and integrated supply capacity.
Investment suggestion: at present, the company's air-conditioning pipe business has won orders from Geely, NIO Inc., ideal, XPeng Inc., Mengjie and other leading new energy customers. the high sales of new energy vehicles in the future will thicken the company's air-conditioning tube business profits. in addition, new thermal management products such as CO2 heat pump modules, electronic pumps and gas-liquid separators will also contribute increments, superimposed by EGR and rubber hoses. We estimate that the return net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 is 137 million yuan, 242 million yuan and 360 million yuan respectively, EPS is 0.39,0.69,1.03 yuan, corresponding to PE is 21 times, 12 times, 8 times respectively.
Risk hints: the risk of macroeconomic fluctuations, repeated domestic epidemics, a sharp rise in raw material prices, lower-than-expected sales of new energy vehicles, less-than-expected new capacity, continued chip shortage, and less-than-expected progress in new product research and development.