Main points of investment
The company announced its annual performance forecast for 2022: it is expected to achieve operating income of about 1.22 billion yuan in 2022, + 0.78% year-on-year, and realize net profit of 50 million yuan, 88.94% ~-83.41%, and deducting non-return net profit of-50 ~ 1.5 million yuan. Year-on-year-101.23% ~-96.32%. Among them, Q4 is expected to achieve an operating income of about 340 million yuan in 2022, which is + 10.91% compared with the same period last year. The net profit of returning to the mother is 1801.2320.5123 million yuan, which is 381.90% higher than that of the same period last year and 40,9648,4346.48 million yuan more than that of Q3. The net profit of non-parent is 1469.51 ~ 16.6951 million yuan, which is + 1561.43% ~ + 1787.55% compared with the same period last year, and an increase of 3810.93 million yuan over Q3.
Benefiting from the rise in raw material prices, the company's Q4 profit bottomed out and rebounded in 2022. The company achieved a net profit of 5007.5 million yuan in 2022, with a median return rate of about 0.5%. Among them, Q4 realized a net profit of 18.012320.5123 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 323.17% compared with the same period last year, an increase of 4096.48,4346.48 million yuan over Q3, and a median return rate of 5.7%, year-on-year + 4.3pct, month-on-month + 14.5pct. The pricing model of the company's mature products is "raw material cost + processing fee". The product is based on the average market price of the main raw materials in the previous month as the pricing basis of the raw material cost, while the purchasing time of the company's raw materials is earlier than the settlement time of the products. therefore, the sharp decline in silver prices of major raw materials in the first three quarters of 2022 impaired the company's profitability, and silver prices increased significantly in the fourth quarter. Drive the company's profitability to bottom out and rebound.
New energy vehicles, electronics and other related products to accelerate the release of new business potential energy began to release in the traditional refrigeration and HVAC business downstream growth slowed down the background, the company vigorously expand new energy vehicles, electronics and other new tracks, the new business has a high growth. With the continued expansion of the company's future orders from customers such as Hongfa, the relay leader, and Meicheng Ceramics, the upstream supplier of BYD power battery ceramic sealing rings, the domestic substitution process of superimposed electronic solder paste is accelerated. we are optimistic about the release of the company's business potential energy in new energy vehicles, electronics and other new areas, which is expected to drive the company's future performance to continue to grow at a high speed.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the overall operating income from 2022 to 2024 is 1.221 billion yuan, 1.603 million yuan, and the corresponding growth rate is 0.81 percent, 31.27 percent, 27.06 percent, 0.06, 0.48, 0.91 million yuan, respectively, and the corresponding growth rate is-86.04 percent, 658.90 percent, 89.13 percent, and 0.06, 0.42, 0.79 yuan, respectively. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk hint
The risk of fluctuations in raw material prices; downstream demand for new businesses such as new energy vehicles and electronics is lower than expected.