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交银料报复性消费将在上半年继续推动消费板块复苏 尤其有利于餐厅和啤酒品牌

BOCOM expects retaliatory consumption to continue to drive the recovery of the consumer sector in the first half of the year, which is particularly beneficial to restaurants and beer brands

金吾資訊 ·  02/01 09:55

交银国际发布消费行业周报,具体如下:

国内旅游:春节假期(2023年1月21-27日)全国国内旅游出游3.08亿人次,同比增长23.1%。实现国内旅游收入3758亿元,同比增长30%。

电影票房:2023年春节档电影票房为68亿元,同比增长11.9%,位列中国影史春节档电影票房第二位(第一位为2021年的78亿元)。观影人次为1.29亿,同比增长13.2%。

海南离岛免税销售额:春节假期期间,海南省离岛免税店总销售25.72亿元,日均销售额超3.5亿元,同比2022年春节假期增长20.7%,比2019年增长329%。

餐饮:受访餐饮企业春节假期期间营业收入与去年春节相比上涨24.7%,与2019年春节相比上涨1.9%;客流量与去年春节相比上涨26%,与2019年春节基本持平。

投资启示:中国春节假期数据,包括餐饮收入(同比增长25%)、票房(+12%)、国内旅游人次(+23%)和收入(+30%)、免税店销售额(+21%)等均较去年同期强劲反弹,为兔年开了个好头。消费活动通常会在春节后放缓,而今年的春节提前了10天,这意味着第1季度的总体消费数据最终会被打折。但交银预计2季度数据将在低基数的帮助下有强劲反弹。该行预计报复性消费将在上半年继续推动消费板块的复苏,尤其有利于餐厅和啤酒品牌。交银尤其看好华润啤酒、滔博、九毛九和百威亚太。

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