Main points of investment

The company issued a 2022 performance forecast: the company expects 2022 return net profit of-398 to-36.8 billion yuan (- 12.214 billion yuan in 2021), of which 22Q4 is-11.684 billion yuan to-8.684 billion yuan.

Operating data

(1) at the end of 22, the fleet was 775, a year-on-year increase of + 3.1%, with an increase of 34, an withdrawal of 11 and a net increase of 23.

(2) 2022: ASK, RPK and occupancy rates are-40.2%,-43.7% and-4.0pct respectively compared with the same period last year, which are-64.4%,-72.3% and-18.3pct respectively compared with 19 years.

The triple impact of epidemic situation, oil and foreign exchange, and the loss expanded compared with the same period last year.

The demand of the aviation market was affected by the epidemic in 2022, and the company, headquartered in Shanghai, experienced the most severe challenges of the epidemic in the first half of the year. At the same time, the sharp rise in oil prices and the devaluation of the RMB led to the expansion of the company's losses compared with the same period last year. In 22 years, the average CIF customs value of aviation kerosene imports was 7540 yuan per ton, an increase of 73% over the same period last year.

Passenger flow and ticket prices are worth looking forward to in the second half of the 2023 Spring Festival transportation.

The passenger flow of all civil aviation in the first half of the Spring Festival transportation has recovered to 70% of that in 19 years; the passenger flow before the festival is scattered, and the civil aviation travel after the festival has the potential to exceed expectations. The flight butler expects that the passenger flow will return to 80% in the second half of the Spring Festival travel, and the ticket price is also worth looking forward to.

The recovery of the international line is accelerated, and continue to be optimistic about the aviation cycle.

In January 23, entry was liberalized, document processing is being restored, the volume of international flights in the new season is expected to recover greatly, passenger flow is expected to continue to recover, and continue to be optimistic about the aviation cycle. The company has the advantage of two main bases in Shanghai and has the highest share of the Beijing-Shanghai line, the hottest business line. The total price of the Beijing-Shanghai line in winter and spring in 22 years is 2150 yuan, up 73% from 2017. With the continuous promotion of the marketization of ticket prices, the company is optimistic about the recovery of domestic demand. The company ushered in the release of profit elasticity. It is estimated that the net profit of homing in 22-24 years will be-375,15 and 12.5 billion yuan respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating.

Risk hint

Demand recovery is not as expected, oil price, exchange rate risk, emergency risk.