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Is Beiqi Foton MotorLtd (SHSE:600166) A Risky Investment?

Is Beiqi Foton MotorLtd (SHSE:600166) A Risky Investment?

北汽福田汽車股份有限公司(SHSE股票代碼:600166)是一種高風險的投資嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  2023/01/31 12:30

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that Beiqi Foton Motor Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:600166) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

傳奇基金經理Li·Lu曾説過,最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久性的資本損失。因此,當你評估一家公司的風險有多大時,聰明的投資者似乎知道債務--通常涉及破產--是一個非常重要的因素。我們可以看到北汽福田汽車有限公司。(上海證券交易所:600166)確實在其業務中使用債務。但更重要的問題是:這筆債務造成了多大的風險?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

債務會帶來什麼風險?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

當一家企業無法輕鬆履行這些義務時,債務和其他債務就會變得有風險,無論是通過自由現金流還是通過以有吸引力的價格籌集資本。在最糟糕的情況下,如果一家公司無法償還債權人的債務,它可能會破產。然而,一種更常見(但仍令人痛苦)的情景是,它不得不以低價籌集新的股本,從而永久性地稀釋股東。話雖如此,最常見的情況是一家公司對債務管理得相當好--並對自己有利。在考慮一家公司的債務水平時,第一步是同時考慮其現金和債務。

See our latest analysis for Beiqi Foton MotorLtd

查看我們對北汽福田汽車有限公司的最新分析

What Is Beiqi Foton MotorLtd's Debt?

北汽福田汽車有限公司的債務是什麼?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Beiqi Foton MotorLtd had debt of CN¥5.20b at the end of September 2022, a reduction from CN¥6.48b over a year. But it also has CN¥8.62b in cash to offset that, meaning it has CN¥3.41b net cash.

下圖顯示,截至2022年9月底,北汽福田汽車有限公司的債務為52億加元,比一年內的64.8億加元有所減少。你可以點擊查看更多細節。但它也有人民幣86.2億元的現金來抵消,這意味着它有人民幣34.1億元的淨現金。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SHSE:600166 Debt to Equity History January 31st 2023
上證綜指:600166債轉股歷史2023年1月31日

How Healthy Is Beiqi Foton MotorLtd's Balance Sheet?

北汽福田汽車有限公司的資產負債表健康程度如何?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Beiqi Foton MotorLtd had liabilities of CN¥30.7b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥6.13b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥8.62b and CN¥8.50b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total CN¥19.7b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

放大最新的資產負債表數據,我們可以看到,北汽福田汽車有限公司有307億加元的負債在12個月內到期,還有61.3億加元的負債在12個月內到期。另一方面,它還有86.2億元現金和85億元應收賬款在一年內到期。因此,它的負債總額為人民幣197億元,比現金和短期應收賬款的總和還要多。

This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of CN¥27.4b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Beiqi Foton MotorLtd's use of debt. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry. Despite its noteworthy liabilities, Beiqi Foton MotorLtd boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load! The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Beiqi Foton MotorLtd will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.

與北汽福田274億元的市值相比,這一赤字是相當可觀的,因此這確實表明股東應該密切關注北汽福田汽車有限公司的債務使用情況。這表明,如果該公司需要匆忙支撐其資產負債表,股東將被嚴重稀釋。儘管北汽福田汽車有限公司的負債值得注意,但它擁有淨現金,所以公平地説,它沒有沉重的債務負擔!當你分析債務時,資產負債表顯然是你關注的領域。但你不能完全孤立地看待債務,因為北汽福田汽車有限公司需要盈利來償還債務。因此,如果你熱衷於瞭解更多關於它的收益,可能值得查看一下它的長期收益趨勢圖。

In the last year Beiqi Foton MotorLtd had a loss before interest and tax, and actually shrunk its revenue by 23%, to CN¥46b. To be frank that doesn't bode well.

去年,北汽福田汽車有限公司出現息税前虧損,實際收入縮水23%,至46億加元。坦率地説,這不是一個好兆頭。

So How Risky Is Beiqi Foton MotorLtd?

那麼,北汽福田汽車有限公司的風險有多大?

Statistically speaking companies that lose money are riskier than those that make money. And the fact is that over the last twelve months Beiqi Foton MotorLtd lost money at the earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) line. And over the same period it saw negative free cash outflow of CN¥1.6b and booked a CN¥5.1b accounting loss. But the saving grace is the CN¥3.41b on the balance sheet. That means it could keep spending at its current rate for more than two years. Summing up, we're a little skeptical of this one, as it seems fairly risky in the absence of free cashflow. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Beiqi Foton MotorLtd (1 doesn't sit too well with us) you should be aware of.

從統計上講,虧損的公司比賺錢的公司風險更大。事實是,在過去的12個月裏,北汽福田汽車有限公司在息税前利潤(EBIT)線上虧損。同期,其自由現金流出為負16億加元,並計入51億加元的會計損失。但值得慶幸的是資產負債表上的34.1億元人民幣。這意味着它可能會在兩年多的時間裏保持目前的支出速度。總而言之,我們對這一點持懷疑態度,因為在沒有自由現金流的情況下,它似乎有相當大的風險。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表顯然是一個起點。然而,並非所有投資風險都存在於資產負債表中--遠非如此。例如,我們已經確定北汽福田汽車有限公司的2個警告標誌(1與我們坐在一起不太好)你應該知道。

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

歸根結底,關注那些沒有淨債務的公司往往更好。你可以訪問我們的這類公司的特別名單(都有利潤增長的記錄)。這是免費的。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


以上內容僅用作資訊或教育之目的,不構成與富途相關的任何投資建議。富途竭力但無法保證上述全部內容的真實性、準確性和原創性。
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