In January, the US Markit Composite PMI shrank for seven consecutive months. At one point, a technical glitch at the opening of the New York Stock Exchange led to the temporary suspension of dozens of blue chips. The S & P market and the Nasdaq index fell 0.7% at the beginning of the day, and the Dow fell nearly 320 points. In the afternoon, the Dow rose, and finally closed up more than 100 points and rose for three days in a row, yesterday's leading chip stocks fell off a five-month high.
Another ECB voting committee supported hawkish interest rate hikes, the dollar fell 102 in intraday trading, the euro pushed 1.09 to a nine-month high, and the pound fell more than 100 points at one point due to poor PMI. U. S. bond yields briefly rose due to U. S. PMI data, and the decline in European bond yields widened collectively after midday.
The OPEC+2 monthly oil production policy may be on hold, with oil prices down $2 or more than 2 per cent in intraday trading. Gold stood at $1930 and hit a nine-month high for four days, while aluminum and nickel hovered at seven-month highs.
Against a backdrop of high inflation and high interest rate pressures, investors are concerned about the economic health shown by the earnings season and US economic data. After today's trading, Microsoft Corp announced the fourth-quarter financial results, Johnson & Johnson, General Electric Co, telecommunications giant Verizon and so on released the financial results before the trading.
瑞银全球财富管理首席投资官 Mark Haefele指出：“短期内市场或没有太大上涨空间，尤其是考虑到我们对美股企业利润增长持续面临压力的展望。”
Mark Haefele, chief investment officer of global wealth management at UBS, said: "the market may not have much room to rise in the short term, especially given our outlook for continued pressure on corporate profit growth in US stocks."
A number of more ECB voting committees spoke hawkishly in support of continuing to raise interest rates in the short term, which may peak this summer. Some voting committees said that in view of the increased wage pressure in the euro zone, interest rates should be raised by 50 basis points several times. The euro hovered at a nine-month high against the dollar.
Economic data from Europe and the United States are mixed:
The Philadelphia Fed's non-manufacturing index rose to-6.5 in January, while key sub-indices such as new orders, sales and employment all rose, while the paid price index fell. But in the same month, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index fell sharply to-11, expected to be-5, a previous value of 1.
The first reading of US Markit services and manufacturing PMI improved in January, but overall business activity shrank for the seventh month in a row, with input price inflation rising for the first time since May last year. Us bond yields and the Nasdaq rose at one point, then fell again.
The US economy got off to a disappointing start in 2023, with business activity shrinking at its sharpest pace since the 2008 financial crisis and signs of recession growing, according to Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Inc..
Both services and composite PMI in the eurozone grew faster than expected and returned to expansion in January, with the resumption of a modest growth trend boosting hopes that the region might avoid recession, with German service sector activity expanding for the first time since June, paving the way for the ECB to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in February.
But the UK's initial PMI in manufacturing and services fell more than expected in January, while private sector economic activity shrank at its fastest pace in two years. The gap in CBI industrial orders in the same month was-17, the lowest since February 2021, and sterling was the worst performer against the dollar among major currencies.
S & P, Nasdaq and Russell small-cap stocks fell off seven-week highs, chip stocks missed a five-month high, and the Dow rose to an one-week high for the third time in a row
On Tuesday, January 24, US stocks opened lower, with the Dow down nearly 320 points, or 0.9%, while the S & P 500, Nasdaq and Russell small-cap stocks fell as much as 0.7%. After midday, the Dow index rose, and other stock indexes fell significantly. S & P returned to 4,000 integer points.
The NYSE suffered a technical glitch early in the session, suspending trading in at least 40 stocks in the S & P 500, affecting blue chips such as Morgan Stanley, Verizon, AT&T Inc, Nike Inc, Walmart Inc and McDonald's Corp. But trading returned to normal after 20 minutes of trading.
By the close, S & P, Nasdaq 100 and Russell small-cap stocks were all off the seven-week high set by yesterday's close and stopped rising for two days. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was off a five-month high, but the Dow rose three days in a row to an one-week high:
The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 2.86 points, or 0.07%, to 4016.95. The Dow closed up 104.40 points, or 0.31%, at 33733.96. The Nasdaq closed down 30.14 points, or 0.27%, at 11334.27. The Nasdaq 100 index closed down 0.2%, while the Russell 2000 small-cap index fell 0.3%.
The 11 S & P sectors varied, with telecom services and health care falling more than 0.6% as the worst performers, energy and optional consumption down about 0.2%, information technology / technology down nearly 0.1%, consumer goods, real estate and utilities up about 0.4%, and the industrial sector up more than 0.6%.
Star technology stocks go up and down. Yuan Universe Meta closed slightly lower after rising more than 1%, but hovered at a four-month high. Amazon.Com Inc fell more than 1%, Apple Inc rose 1% to a six-week high, Microsoft Corp fell 0.2% off an one-month high and rose nearly 5% in after-hours trading. Alphabet Inc-CL A fell more than 2 per cent off a seven-week high, while Nai soared 1.8 per cent to a nine-and-a-half-month high. Tesla, Inc. rose nearly 2 per cent before falling 1.8 per cent before rising slightly to a five-week high.
Most chip stocks fell. The Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 0.7 per cent but held steady above 2900, off the five-month high set yesterday. NVIDIA Corp rose 0.4%, Intel Corp fell more than 1%, Intel Corp fell more than 2%, high inflation 1.5% before turning down, Texas Instruments Inc fell 6% but rose nearly 2% after trading. VanEck semiconductor ETF fell 0.7% and rose more than 16% in January, which will be the best start to the year since 2001 and the biggest increase in two months.
According to the news, Tesla, Inc. plans to build a new $3.5 billion plant in Nevada to produce electric trucks and raise the starting price of the US Model Y by $500 to $53490. The US government has stepped up antitrust efforts to sue Alphabet Inc-CL C over the advertising market, demanding that Alphabet Inc-CL C's advertising / technology business be split into the largest corporate split in the United States in 40 years. Bernstein downgraded AMD to "hold" due to a worsening trend in the PC market. The strong growth of cloud business made Microsoft Corp's earnings exceed expectations in the fourth quarter, and Texas Instruments Inc also reported better-than-expected results.
The decline in the popular market narrowed in late trading. ETF KWEB is down 0.5%, and the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) is down 0.4%. Of the four Nasdaq stocks, JD.com and Pinduoduo both fell 1.5 per cent before closing up about 1 per cent, NetEase, Inc fell 0.4 per cent and Baidu, Inc. fell 2.6 per cent. Among other stocks, BABA fell 0.1%, Tencent ADR fell 0.5%, Tencent B Station fell 2%, NIO Inc. Motor rose nearly 19% and then fell more than 3%, XPeng Inc. fell nearly 5%, and Li Auto Inc. fell nearly 1%. Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. ADR, shorted by J Capital, fell more than 6 per cent.
Verizon shares were unusual at the beginning of the session, rising nearly 13% at one point, triggering a temporary suspension of trading, and rising 2% after resuming trading. The fourth-quarter results were in line with expectations, but the adjusted earnings outlook for 2023 was poor.
Defense contractor Lockheed Martin Corp rose nearly 2%, beating expectations in revenue and profit in the fourth quarter. Johnson & Johnson fell as deep as 1.4%, falling 11 days in a row to a three-month low. Fourth-quarter earnings exceeded expectations but failed to meet revenue expectations, and the full-year profit outlook was slightly higher than expected.
Industrial giant 3M Company fell more than 6 per cent to a three-month low, with higher-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings but poor earnings and weak full-year guidance. Sales are expected to fall 2-6 per cent and cut 2500 manufacturing jobs worldwide. After falling nearly 3%, General Electric Co rose by more than 1% and beat expectations in the fourth quarter, but adjusted earnings per share in 2023 were lower than expected, and the renewable energy business was dragged down by inflation and the supply chain.
At one point, US sports and leisure retailer Lululemon fell more than 4% to "underweight", lowering its target price by $50 to $290, down more than 8% from Monday's close, warning that clothing stocks were about to reset and that the company was facing a post-epidemic growth inflection point.
Hawks on the ECB's voting committee held down European stocks, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 index down 0.24 per cent, health care and oil and gas stocks down more than 1 per cent, but tourism and leisure stocks rose 1.4 per cent, bank stocks rose 0.6 per cent, and a return to modest PMI expansion in January sent economy-related European industrial stocks up nearly 1 per cent. Stock indexes in major countries were mixed, with British stocks falling the most because of poor PMI data.
Us bond yields rose briefly after the US PMI data, and the decline in European bond yields widened collectively after midday.
Treasury yields fell across all maturities on Tuesday. After the release of US PMI data, they briefly stopped falling and turned higher, then widened their losses by midday and refreshed their daily lows.
The yield on the 10-year benchmark u. S.bond fell 6 basis points to 3.46% at one point after the release of the dint PMI, 3.54%. The yield on 30-year bonds fell 7 basis points to 3.62 per cent and rose to 3.70 per cent at one point after the release of PMI. The two-year yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, fell 4 basis points and lost 4.20 per cent at one point, off an one-week high, and rose to 4.25 per cent at one point after the PMI release.
Money market traders believe that before the Fed starts cutting interest rates later this year, it will only raise rates twice more by June, each with a "more traditional" 25 basis points, peaking at around 5 per cent. The Fed insists that it will follow up or raise interest rates by 75 basis points.
European bond yields also fell further in late trading. Eurozone benchmark two-year and 10-year German bond yields both fell more than 5 basis points, with German base bond yields hitting 2.569 per cent, their highest level since July 2011, on January 2. However, some analysts said that the prospect of euro zone PMI returning to 50, the prospect of improved economic growth, has not yet been priced into the European bond market, and European bond yields may be higher in the future.
Oil prices fell $2 or more than 2% in intraday trading, US oil hovered around $80, and European natural gas fell more than 12% to an one-week low.
American Oil WTI rose above US $82 before US stock trading, then fell and widened its decline in US stocks, falling nearly US $2 or 2.4%, losing the whole number of US $80. International Brent rose above US $89 before US stock trading, and fell as deep as US $2.38 or 2.7% in US stocks, losing US $86, the lowest since January 19th.
Analysts said the market was mainly worried about the global economic slowdown and the higher-than-expected increase in U. S. oil inventories last week. JPMorgan Chase & Co raised his forecast for Chinese crude oil demand, but maintained his forecast for the average price of cloth oil at $90 a barrel in 2023, saying it would be difficult for oil prices to break through $100 this year without major geopolitical events, as overall supply would exceed demand.
On the news side, the media said that OPEC+ expected the February meeting to recommend that production remain unchanged. The group's representatives said privately that the status quo would be maintained while waiting for the recovery in Chinese consumption and the impact of western sanctions on Russian crude oil supplies to become clear.
The European benchmark TTF Dutch natural gas futures fell nearly 7% in late trading, fell more than 12% in intraday trading and lost 60 euros / megawatt-hour integer bits to a nearly one-week low. ICE British natural gas fell more than 11% in late trading, fell more than 12% in intraday trading and lost 150p / kcal. NYMEX February, u.s. natural gas futures closed down 5.48% at $3.2580 per million British thermal units.
The dollar fell 102 in intraday trading, the euro pushed 1.09 close to a nine-month high, and the pound fell more than 100 points at one point.
The DXY, a basket of dollar indexes that measure six major currencies, stopped swollen and fell after midday, closing in on Wednesday's intraday low since the end of May last year, hovering around a seven-and-a-half-month low.
The euro rose to 1.09 against the dollar, close to the nine-month intraday high set yesterday. At one point, the pound fell more than 100 points or 0.9% against the dollar, briefly losing 1.23 and missing a five-week high. Analysts said the economic data highlighted that the growth gap was widening and that the pound might underperform the euro in the future. The dollar rose against the yen for two days and pushed down 130. last week it hit a low of 127.22 against the yen since May last year.
The rise and fall of mainstream encrypted digital currencies varies. Bitcoin, the largest leader by market capitalization, hovered around $23000, a five-month high, while Ethernet, the second-largest, fell 1 per cent and lost $1620, but not far from the four-month high it hit a few days ago.
Gold stood at $1930 and hit a nine-month high for four days, while aluminum and nickel hovered around a seven-month high.
COMEX February gold futures closed up about 0.4% at $1935.40 an ounce, setting a nine-month high since April last year for the fourth consecutive day and closing above $1900 for seven consecutive trading days. Spot gold rose as much as 0.6 per cent and at one point broke the integer figure of $1940, the highest in nine months.
Lun aluminum rose 0.5% to a seven-month high. Lun lead rose 3.5% above $2100, stopping a four-day losing streak and rebounding from a two-month low. Ren Zinc rose 0.2% near a five-month high. Lenny rose 2.4% from a more than two-week low, while Lunxi rose 1.5%, hovering around a seven-month high.
Edit / lydia
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