Main points of investment:
Company announcement: the expected return net profit in 2022 is RMB 5-550 million, an increase of 656%-732% over the same period last year, and the estimated non-return net profit is RMB4.99-549 million, an increase of 690%-769% over the same period last year. Among them, 22Q4 expects to achieve a net profit of RMB 1.28-178 million, an increase of 374% RMB559% over the same period last year, and a month-on-month increase of-20% Mel 11%. The performance is in line with expectations.
Oil service plate economic recovery, the company's performance continues to cash. In 2022, the price of Brent crude oil reached a high of 139.13 US dollars per barrel. Although Brent oil price fell 9.2 US dollars per barrel in the fourth quarter, it is still at a high position in recent years and is expected to continue to maintain. This round of high oil prices has led to a continuous rise in the prosperity of the oil and gas industry. Considering the lag of oil price transmission, the lagging effect of high oil prices on oil service industry transmission after 2022 is becoming more and more prominent. The economic recovery of the oil suit track is accelerating. The company seizes the good opportunity of the recovery of the industry, continues to increase investment and development efforts, takes "resource advantage, technological advantage, cost advantage" as the core competitiveness, and the integration advantage promotes the company's performance to be realized continuously.
There has been a marked increase in the number of newly signed contracts and the drilling plate has gradually recovered. The lagging impact of early oil prices on the drilling sector is gradually emerging, and the company has further impacted the overseas high-end market on the basis of traditional markets such as Iraq. In 2021, it successfully entered the Saudi market with the highest threshold and achieved a historic breakthrough. 2022Q4 signed 31 contracts with a contract value of 624 million yuan, an increase of 186.24% over the same period last year. In addition, the market-oriented reform of the domestic oil service market is accelerated, the entry barriers of private oil services are gradually broken, and the company's own domestic oil and gas projects continue to advance, the integration advantage provides new support for domestic drilling rig activities, and future growth is expected.
Wensu block helps to increase oil and gas production, and overseas projects open up room for growth. The oil and gas production of the company's Wensu project entered the acceleration period. In 2022, the output of crude oil reached 434000 tons, an increase of 264000 tons over the same period last year, an increase of 155.29 percent over the same period last year, and crude oil output reached a new high. In addition, the distribution of foreign resources is completed through participation in the Kazakh tenge project and the acquisition of shore projects. Among them, the proved geological reserves of the tenge project are 65.44 million tons, and the estimated geological reserves of the shore projects are 24.8 million tons, all of which have the advantages of low cost and abundant reserves, which will lay a foundation for the increase of reserves and production of the company's upstream resources. At the same time, the Central Asian region is rich in natural gas resources, which is expected to make up the company's natural gas deficiency and help the company achieve the goal of clean energy transformation.
Investment analysis opinion: considering that the high operation of international oil prices and the development of the high-end market in the Middle East will lead to the recovery of the bottom of the drilling plate of the company, at the same time, as the domestic Wenshu project enters the oil and gas production cycle and the accelerated development of the Kazakh project, the company's performance improvement room is large, we maintain the company's profit forecast of 535 million yuan, 929 million yuan and 1.256 billion yuan respectively from 2022 to 2024. The corresponding PE is 14x, 8X and 6X respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: international oil prices have fallen sharply; capital expenditure of oil companies has fallen short of expectations; daily rates are lower than expected.
