The cost of share payment is reduced, and the profit of 22Q4 is higher than the same period last year.
The company issued a forecast of 2022 results, the estimated return net profit in 2022 is 1.83-223 million yuan, an increase of 2.7%, 25.5% (we had expected 166 million yuan), deducting the non-return net profit of 1.53-187 million yuan, and an increase of 2.7%-25.6% The single-quarter net profit of 22Q4 was 0.45-85 million yuan, up 119.9%, 319.3%, and 365.9%, 781.7%, respectively. The main reason: the share payment fee of 10 million yuan in 2022, down 81.7% from the same period last year. Segment valuation, 23e industry data service income of 932 million yuan, comparable company average 23e 6.1xPS (Wind), given 23e 6.1xPS; steel silver e-commerce contributed net profit of 23e 171 million yuan to listed companies, comparable company average 23e 27.8xPE (Wind), given 23e 27.8xPE, target price 38.92yuan (previous value: 35.97yuan), "buy".
Industrial data services: deep accumulation in the field of industrial data, revenue or accelerated growth in 2022 the company's industrial data service income of 693 million yuan, an increase of 14% over the same period last year, and a two-year compound growth rate of about 20%. In terms of coverage, the company accelerated the layout of energy commodities, new materials and renewable resources in 2022; marked alternative data such as satellite remote sensing and shipping cargo flow in data sources, and improved analysis ability by combining AI technology; continued to promote standardization in data quality; and continued to strengthen customer service to provide various services for data interpretation and research reporting.
The company has a deep accumulation in the field of industrial data, and has a layout in all aspects of data collection, analysis, circulation and application. We believe that with the rapid development of the digital economy, the importance of data is expected to further increase, and the growth of corporate industrial data services is expected to accelerate.
Steel trading services: the capacity of the platform has been continuously consolidated, and the settlement volume has continued to grow year on year. In 2022, the settlement volume of the steel silver e-commerce platform is about 53 million tons, an increase of nearly 15% over the same period last year. In 2022, steel and silver e-commerce companies will strengthen the structural adjustment of the supply chain service business, increase the repayment of accounts receivable, and control operational risks. Steel and silver e-commerce continues to consolidate the platform service capacity, using big data, cloud computing, AI and other advanced technologies to empower the upstream and downstream enterprises of the iron and steel supply chain, and gradually extend to the core links such as production and circulation. We believe that steel and silver e-commerce actively control operational risks, and the quality of development is expected to be further improved. With the evolution of the trend of online trading, the settlement volume of the platform may continue to grow, and the continuous strengthening of the service capacity of steel and silver e-commerce will lay a good foundation for the further increase of service charges per ton of steel.
The core enterprises in the field of industrial data may benefit from the data industry development company as the core enterprise in the industrial data field in 2023, and may benefit from the development of the data industry in 2023, taking into account the sustained and rapid growth of the settlement volume of the iron and steel trading platform, the year-on-year decline in share payment fees in 2022 and the effectiveness of cost control, the forecast of fee reduction rate The estimated income for 2022-2024 is 73.860,823.58 / 91.066 billion yuan (formerly 736.15,819.65 million yuan) The net profit from the return to the mother is 250,000,000 yuan (the previous value is 1667,283 million yuan).
Risk hint: the expansion of industrial data services is lower than expected risk; the risk of declining trading volume of steel and silver e-commerce.