Core viewpoints
The company is an innovative leading enterprise in the field of slewing bearing. The company is mainly engaged in large-scale slewing bearing business, involving wind power, shield machines, marine equipment and other business plates, is an innovative leading enterprise in the industry. The company persists in technological innovation and has made a number of technical achievements. as of the mid-2022 report, the company has obtained 99 patents, including 16 invention patents, leading in bearing technology, realizing domestic replacement of some bearings in the field of wind power and shield machines.
The domestic process of bearings is accelerated, and the development of downstream wind power is improving. Wind power bearings, including spindle bearings, yaw bearings, variable propeller bearings and so on, are important parts to connect yaw, transmission and other system steering in the unit. In 2020, the localization rates of spindle bearings, gear bearings and generator bearings are 32.97%, 0.58% and 0.22%, respectively. GWEC estimates that the newly installed capacity of sea breeze in China from 2022 to 2030 will be 14.7%, and the high prosperity of sea breeze will drive the market demand.
With strong technical strength, production capacity is expected to continue to expand. In terms of products, the semi-direct drive fan has the advantages of both direct drive and double-feed, so it is favored by the fan factory. Semi-direct-drive fans accounted for 22% of the models released by Chinese machine manufacturers in 2021, an increase of 17pct from 5% in 2020. At present, the company's wind power bearing products are mainly equipped with semi-direct-drive and direct-drive fans, which are expected to benefit from the positive trend of semi-direct-drive market. In terms of technology, part of the company's products achieve domestic substitution, the company has successfully developed 1.5-12MW pitch control bearings and yaw bearings, while high-power wind power yaw pitch bearings have been imported; 2-5MW three-row cylindrical roller spindle bearings and 3-6.25MW double-row tapered roller bearings without soft belt have been successfully developed and mass production has been achieved; 3-7MW single-row tapered roller bearings have been successfully developed and small batch production has been realized.
The company has successfully developed 12MW offshore wind-resistant spindle bearings with leading technical strength. In terms of production capacity, the company will raise additional funds for 3.0MW and above high-power wind power mainframe supporting bearing projects in 2021, and the company will issue convertible bonds to distribute gearbox business in 2022, and the company's business scale will continue to expand. In terms of customers, in 2021, the top five customers of the company are Mingyang Intelligence, Vision Energy, Dongfang Electric, Sany heavy Energy and Luoyang Xinneng bearings, with high quality and diversified trend.
Investment suggestion
With the release of production capacity, the company's performance will grow steadily. We expect the net return profit of 2022 and 2023 in 2024 to be 551, 868 and 1.28 billion respectively, and the corresponding EPS to be 1.67, 2.63 and 3.42 yuan per share respectively. Based on the closing price of 60.09 yuan on January 16, 2023, the corresponding PE is 35.96, 22.84 and 17.56 times, respectively. Combined with the prosperity of the industry, optimistic about the development of the company. Cover for the first time and give a "recommended" rating.
Risk hint
The installed capacity of wind power is not as expected, the technical progress of domestic wind power bearings is not as expected, and the progress of fund-raising projects is not as expected.