In the past year, faced with the highest inflation in nearly 40 years, the Fed has aggressively raised interest rates to a record since the early 1980s, thus becoming the main line of asset pricing in the United States and around the world.

Looking forward to 2023, the market has reached some consensus, but there are still differences. According to the view of CICC's comprehensive main institutions, the US recession in 2023 is the consensus, the degree of falling inflation is the key, the end point of Fed interest rate increase and when to cut interest rates are the focus, and there are differences in whether US stocks can rebound.

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