In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Singapore Telecommunications Limited (SGX:Z74) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
View our latest analysis for Singapore Telecommunications
Is Singapore Telecommunications Fairly Valued?
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
|Levered FCF (SGD, Millions)||S$2.12b||S$2.03b||S$3.15b||S$3.34b||S$3.51b||S$3.65b||S$3.77b||S$3.88b||S$3.98b||S$4.07b|
|Growth Rate Estimate Source||Analyst x3||Analyst x3||Analyst x3||Est @ 6.18%||Est @ 4.88%||Est @ 3.98%||Est @ 3.34%||Est @ 2.90%||Est @ 2.59%||Est @ 2.37%|
|Present Value (SGD, Millions) Discounted @ 6.3%||S$2.0k||S$1.8k||S$2.6k||S$2.6k||S$2.6k||S$2.5k||S$2.5k||S$2.4k||S$2.3k||S$2.2k|
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = S$23b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.3%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = S$4.1b× (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (6.3%– 1.9%) = S$93b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= S$93b÷ ( 1 + 6.3%)10= S$50b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is S$74b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of S$2.6, the company appears quite undervalued at a 43% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.SGX:Z74 Discounted Cash Flow December 26th 2022
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Singapore Telecommunications as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Singapore Telecommunications
- Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
- Debt is not viewed as a risk.
- Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
- Dividend information for Z74.
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Telecom market.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Singaporean market.
- Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
- Annual revenue is forecast to grow slower than the Singaporean market.
- What else are analysts forecasting for Z74?
Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Singapore Telecommunications, we've compiled three important elements you should explore:
- Risks: Take risks, for example - Singapore Telecommunications has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
- Future Earnings: How does Z74's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Singaporean stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.