The development of sales channels and the establishment of sales team lay the foundation for the rapid expansion of vermetini. By 2022 H1, the company's domestic market covers 1000 hospitals and about 500 DTP drugstores in the core market, while the company's partner Jiangsu Fosun covers more than 1500 hospitals in the vast market. Overseas market: the company grants Arrivent Fumetinib exclusive overseas development rights, with a down payment of US $40 million and a cumulative R & D and sales milestone of up to US $765 million, sales royalty and a certain percentage of shares in ArriVent.
Vumetinib has plenty of market space, and first-line drugs have been approved to further enhance competitiveness. In 2020, the number of new cases of non-small cell lung cancer reached 760000, of which 35% were EGFR mutations, and 266000 people were suitable for vermetini. As the third generation EGFR-TKI, vermetini can effectively solve the problem of drug resistance in the first generation EGFRTKI. From 2017 to 2021, the penetration rate of China's third-generation EGFR-TKI in the EGFR-TKI drug market increased from 2.8% to 55.5%, with sufficient growth momentum and still large room for growth. Vumetinib is the only first-line treatment of advanced NSCLC patients with PFS for more than 20 months. It is expected to quickly infiltrate the NSCLC first-line drug market and enhance market competitiveness.
The market in the field of NSCLC therapy tends to be fierce, but the listing progress of vermetini is 2-3 years ahead of the market, which is expected to quickly seize the market space and form a differentiation advantage.
Deep ploughing the field of non-small cell lung cancer treatment, R & D pipeline multi-point layout. The company deeply studies the treatment field of non-small cell lung cancer and develops the multi-point layout of the pipeline. Postoperative adjuvant therapy of vermetini has entered the clinical Ⅲ stage, while the first and second line treatment of NSCLC with positive EGFR TExon20Ins mutation is in clinical Ⅰ phase b. The development of new indications is expected to further open up the market space. The company distributes RET inhibitors and KRASG12C inhibitors, which are expected to be quickly introduced into clinical practice and commercialized by virtue of rich experience in developing NSCLC therapeutic drugs.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we expect the company's operating income from 2022 to 2024 to be 7.743 million yuan, respectively, and the net profit to return to the mother is 0.70 yuan, 458 million yuan, respectively, corresponding to 131.92 yuan, 20.28 and 10.53x, respectively. For the first time, coverage gives an "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: the risk that the sales of vermetini are not as expected; the risk of falling drug prices; the risk of single product dependence; the risk of failure in new drug research and development.