Recently, A, H shares paper plate performance is good.

A shares, paper sector 4 Lianyang, 14 in Shunjie soft up more than 5%, Guanhao high-tech rose more than 4%; Hong Kong stocks, Vinda International once soared 17%.

From a catalytic point of view, it is mainly affected by the sharp decline in the price of upstream pulp raw materials. According to Tianfeng Securities, Brazil's Suzano recently announced an outer plate of eucalyptus pulp in December at US $820 / ton, which will be effective from now on. Brazil's Suzano last quoted an offer of US $860 / ton in July 2002, which was cut by 4.7% this time.

According to the announcement of listed companies, pulp-based raw materials account for more than 70% of the cost of each kind of paper, and even 85% of individual kinds of paper. Oriental Securities previously pointed out that because of its own pulp production capacity and a high level of cost control, Sun Paper's cultural paper cost is 553 yuan lower than the average cost per ton in the same industry.

In addition, the domestic spot market prices have accelerated in recent weeks, especially the goldfish and parrot brands of Suzano in Shandong have fallen more than 350 yuan / ton since their high in October.

Pulp production capacity enters the market in large quantities

According to the statistics of the Business Society and the Paper Industry Chamber of Commerce, since the beginning of 2021, several leading enterprises in South America have begun to expand production plans, with a new production capacity of nearly 14.8 million tons, which will be put into production in 22 years and 23 years respectively.

According to the above schedule, by the fourth quarter of 2022, the new overseas pulp production capacity has exceeded 6 million tons.

Compared with foreign countries, the new capacity planning of domestic pulp is more. According to incomplete statistics, the planned production capacity of domestic pulp in the past two years is as high as 12.9 million tons. In terms of new production capacity, the production capacity that can be put into production this year and next year is as high as 7.6 million tons.

The profits of paper companies may show up in the second and third quarters of next year.

Everbright Securities pointed out that the current domestic wood pulp spot price has peaked in October and is now in a negative state. Once the European and American economies continue to decline, it cannot be ruled out that there will be a large decline in international paste prices.

Huatai said that since 2022, the paper industry has experienced the deterioration of the relationship between supply and demand and the overall contraction of profit margins of major types of paper. However, with the further focus on "steady growth" in 2023, domestic demand is expected to usher in a marginal improvement.

Huatai also said that although the industry still needs to face the challenge of slowing exports and high capacity growth in 2023, and the recovery of fundamentals may still be tortuous, the opportunity for valuation repair has emerged when domestic demand is gradually becoming clearer.

According to CICC, paper mills are expected to enjoy low-cost pulp cost dividends in February-March, while profit elasticity may continue to show month-on-month in the second-third quarter of next year; if pulp prices continue to fall faster than expected, the specialty paper sector will have room for super-market expectations in 2023.