SPY Forms This Pattern Ahead of CPI, FOMC: Here's What To Watch Into Next Week
SPY Forms This Pattern Ahead of CPI, FOMC: Here's What To Watch Into Next Week
The SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY) was spiking higher in the premarket on Friday before the U.S. Labor Department released producer price index (PPI) data, causing the ETF to open down about 0.3%.
标准普尔500指数(纽约证券交易所股票代码：标普500ETF)在周五开盘前飙升美国劳工部公布工业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI)数据，导致该ETF开盘下跌约0.3%。
PPI data for the month of November came in at 7.4% year-over year, down from 8% in October but slightly above economist estimates.
11月份的PPI数据同比增长7.4%，低于10月份的8%，但略高于经济学家的预期。
Despite the higher-than-expected number, Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance, believes the Federal Reserve will reduce its rate hike from 0.75% to 0.5% when it meets next week.
尽管这一数字高于预期，但首席投资官克里斯·扎卡雷利独立顾问联盟，认为美联储下周开会时将把加息幅度从0.75%降至0.5%。
Related Link: US Adds 263,000 Jobs In November As Labor Market Stays Hot Despite Fed Hikes
相关链接：美国11月新增26.3万个就业岗位，尽管美联储加息，但劳动力市场依然火爆
Fed chair Jerome Powell suggested the central bank could begin easing back on its interest rate hikes during his speech at the Brookings Institution on Nov. 30. Consumer price index data, set to be released on Dec. 13, will be the last data point the Fed receives about inflation before making its Dec. 14 decision.
美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在他的演讲中暗示央行可能开始放松加息布鲁金斯学会11月30日。消费者物价指数数据定于12月13日发布，这将是美联储在12月14日做出决定之前收到的最后一个有关通胀的数据点。
When Powell signaled the fed may begin to shift its policy, the S&P 500 reacted bullishly, rallying over 3% and closing the trading day above the 200-day simple moving average. Despite PPI data suggesting Powell may have the data needed to follow through on pulling back, the S&P 500 behaved mostly neutral, unable to gain momentum to the upside.
当鲍威尔暗示美联储可能开始转变政策时，标准普尔500指数反应乐观，涨幅超过3%，收盘时高于200日简单移动均线。尽管PPI数据显示鲍威尔可能拥有回调所需的数据，但标准普尔500指数大多表现为中性，无法获得上行动力。
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The SPY Chart: After the SPY temporarily regained support at the 200-day SMA, the ETF closed the subsequent two trading days above the level before falling under it, which created a bull trap. On Tuesday, momentum to the downside caused the SPY to break down bearishly from a rising wedge pattern, which also negated the ETF's uptrend.
标普500ETF图表：在标普500ETF指数暂时在200日移动平均线上重新获得支撑后，该ETF在随后的两个交易日收盘高于该水平，然后跌破该水平，这造成了一个牛市陷阱。周二，下跌势头导致标普500ETF指数从上升的楔形格局中悲观地突破，这也否定了ETF的上涨趋势。
- Although the SPY lost its uptrend, the ETF hasn't yet confirmed a downtrend by printing a lower high. If the ETF trades lower on Monday, Friday's high-of-day will serve as the first lower high within a new downtrend.
- The steep drop between Dec. 1 and Dec. 6, paired with the slight three-day rise between Wednesday and Friday, has settled the SPY into a possible bear flag pattern on the daily chart. If the SPY breaks down from the lower ascending trendline of the flag on higher-than-average volume, the measured move is about 4.1%, which indicates the SPY could drop toward $381.
- Bears want to see big bearish volume come in and drop the ETF down under $394, which could indicate the bear flag has been recognized. Bulls want to see the SPY close up above the eight-day exponential moving average, which would negate the bear flag.
- It's also possible that the SPY chops sideways and doesn't react to any chart patterns until Wednesday when the Fed releases its interest rate decision.
- The SPY has resistance above at $400 and $404 and support below at $394.17 and $385.85.
- 尽管标普500ETF指数失去了上涨趋势，但该ETF尚未通过印制较低的高点来确认下跌趋势。如果该ETF周一走低，周五的高点将成为新一轮下跌趋势中的第一个较低高点。
- 12月1日至6日的大幅下跌，加上周三至周五的三天小幅上涨，使标普500ETF指数在日线图上进入了可能的熊旗模式。如果标普500ETF指数从高于平均成交量的较低上升趋势线跌破，测得的波动幅度约为4.1%，这意味着标普500ETF指数可能会跌向381美元。
- 空头希望看到大量看跌交易量涌入，并将ETF跌至394美元以下，这可能表明熊市旗帜已被认可。多头希望看到标普500ETF指数收在8天指数移动均线上方，这将抵消熊市旗帜。
- 标普500ETF指数也有可能横盘整理，在周三美联储发布利率决定之前不会对任何图表模式做出反应。
- 标普500ETF在400美元和404美元上方有阻力，在394.17美元和385.85美元下方有支撑。
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译文内容由第三方软件翻译。