SPY Forms This Pattern Ahead of CPI, FOMC: Here's What To Watch Into Next Week
SPY Forms This Pattern Ahead of CPI, FOMC: Here's What To Watch Into Next Week
The SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY) was spiking higher in the premarket on Friday before the U.S. Labor Department released producer price index (PPI) data, causing the ETF to open down about 0.3%.
標準普爾500指數(紐約證券交易所股票代碼：標普500ETF)在週五開盤前飆升美國勞工部公佈工業生產者出廠價格指數(PPI)數據，導致該ETF開盤下跌約0.3%。
PPI data for the month of November came in at 7.4% year-over year, down from 8% in October but slightly above economist estimates.
11月份的PPI數據同比增長7.4%，低於10月份的8%，但略高於經濟學家的預期。
Despite the higher-than-expected number, Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance, believes the Federal Reserve will reduce its rate hike from 0.75% to 0.5% when it meets next week.
儘管這一數位高於預期，但首席投資官克裡斯·扎卡雷利獨立顧問聯盟，認為美聯儲下週開會時將把加息幅度從0.75%降至0.5%。
Related Link: US Adds 263,000 Jobs In November As Labor Market Stays Hot Despite Fed Hikes
相關鏈接：美國11月新增26.3萬個就業崗位，儘管美聯儲加息，但勞動力市場依然火爆
Fed chair Jerome Powell suggested the central bank could begin easing back on its interest rate hikes during his speech at the Brookings Institution on Nov. 30. Consumer price index data, set to be released on Dec. 13, will be the last data point the Fed receives about inflation before making its Dec. 14 decision.
美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾在他的演講中暗示央行可能開始放鬆加息布魯金斯學會11月30日。消費者物價指數數據定於12月13日發佈，這將是美聯儲在12月14日做出決定之前收到的最後一個有關通脹的數據點。
When Powell signaled the fed may begin to shift its policy, the S&P 500 reacted bullishly, rallying over 3% and closing the trading day above the 200-day simple moving average. Despite PPI data suggesting Powell may have the data needed to follow through on pulling back, the S&P 500 behaved mostly neutral, unable to gain momentum to the upside.
當鮑威爾暗示美聯儲可能開始轉變政策時，標準普爾500指數反應樂觀，漲幅超過3%，收盤時高於200日簡單移動均線。儘管PPI數據顯示鮑威爾可能擁有回調所需的數據，但標準普爾500指數大多表現為中性，無法獲得上行動力。
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The SPY Chart: After the SPY temporarily regained support at the 200-day SMA, the ETF closed the subsequent two trading days above the level before falling under it, which created a bull trap. On Tuesday, momentum to the downside caused the SPY to break down bearishly from a rising wedge pattern, which also negated the ETF's uptrend.
標普500ETF圖表：在標普500ETF指數暫時在200日移動平均線上重新獲得支撐後，該ETF在隨後的兩個交易日收盤高於該水準，然後跌破該水準，這造成了一個牛市陷阱。週二，下跌勢頭導致標普500ETF指數從上升的楔形格局中悲觀地突破，這也否定了ETF的上漲趨勢。
- Although the SPY lost its uptrend, the ETF hasn't yet confirmed a downtrend by printing a lower high. If the ETF trades lower on Monday, Friday's high-of-day will serve as the first lower high within a new downtrend.
- The steep drop between Dec. 1 and Dec. 6, paired with the slight three-day rise between Wednesday and Friday, has settled the SPY into a possible bear flag pattern on the daily chart. If the SPY breaks down from the lower ascending trendline of the flag on higher-than-average volume, the measured move is about 4.1%, which indicates the SPY could drop toward $381.
- Bears want to see big bearish volume come in and drop the ETF down under $394, which could indicate the bear flag has been recognized. Bulls want to see the SPY close up above the eight-day exponential moving average, which would negate the bear flag.
- It's also possible that the SPY chops sideways and doesn't react to any chart patterns until Wednesday when the Fed releases its interest rate decision.
- The SPY has resistance above at $400 and $404 and support below at $394.17 and $385.85.
- 儘管標普500ETF指數失去了上漲趨勢，但該ETF尚未通過印製較低的高點來確認下跌趨勢。如果該ETF週一走低，週五的高點將成為新一輪下跌趨勢中的第一個較低高點。
- 12月1日至6日的大幅下跌，加上週三至週五的三天小幅上漲，使標普500ETF指數在日線圖上進入了可能的熊旗模式。如果標普500ETF指數從高於平均成交量的較低上升趨勢線跌破，測得的波動幅度約為4.1%，這意味著標普500ETF指數可能會跌向381美元。
- 空頭希望看到大量看跌交易量湧入，並將ETF跌至394美元以下，這可能表明熊市旗幟已被認可。多頭希望看到標普500ETF指數收在8天指數移動均線上方，這將抵消熊市旗幟。
- 標普500ETF指數也有可能橫盤整理，在週三美聯儲發佈利率決定之前不會對任何圖表模式做出反應。
- 標普500ETF在400美元和404美元上方有阻力，在394.17美元和385.85美元下方有支撐。
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譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。