华泰证券:新冠抗原应用方案发布 防控优化下抗原自测重要性凸显

Huatai Securities: COVID-19 antigen application plan released, highlighting the importance of antigen self-testing under optimization of prevention and control

Zhitong Finance ·  12/09/2022 16:25

Zhitong Financial APP learned that Huatai released a research report saying that on December 7, the State Council's comprehensive team of joint prevention and control mechanisms for COVID-19 's epidemic situation issued the "novel coronavirus Antigen Detection Application Plan." The bank believes that the issuance of the program once again strengthens the important role of antigen self-testing in the new stage of domestic epidemic prevention and control optimization, and suggests paying attention to relevant manufacturers with products, certificates, and production capacity. Related companies in the industry chain include 688298.SH, 300003.SZ, 002932.SZ, 688068.SH, 688606.SH and so on.

It is suitable for a wide range of people and scenes, and the demand may be large.The Program points out that the applicable targets for COVID-19 antigen detection include: 1) people with independent antigen testing needs; 2) people in densely populated places; and 3) elderly people in home and pension institutions. Among them, the Program refines the testing frequency and reagent reserve of the second and third categories of objects, clearly stipulating that: 1) densely populated institutions should reserve an appropriate amount of reagents for testing; 2) the elderly in home and pension institutions should be tested twice a week, and primary health care institutions reserve antigen reagents according to 15-20% of the total service population. There are about 200 million people aged 65 and above in China in 21 years (Wind). Under the assumption that the test lasts for 1-2 quarters, the corresponding demand for antigen testing for the elderly in homes and pension institutions is about 50-10 billion person-times. According to the final price of 3.91 yuan per person (the lowest price adopted by Guangdong Alliance), the corresponding market size or more than 10 billion yuan.

Antigen detection is simple and convenient, and its importance is expected to be improved.COVID-19 antigen self-test products have the advantages of convenient use and rapid detection, and can realize "rapid screening and rapid detection", which is one of the important means of epidemic prevention and control screening. Due to the large population base in China and a large number of people in need of self-test rigidity (personnel in densely populated places, the elderly at home and the elderly in pension institutions, etc.), the price of superimposed antigen self-test reagents is relatively low and it is relatively convenient to buy (pharmacies, online channels, etc.) and other factors, the importance of antigen detection in domestic epidemic prevention and control is expected to gradually increase, it is suggested to pay attention to the potential market demand of the sector.

Risk Tips:Product bidding and price reduction, product sales are not up to expectations and so on.

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