Main points of investment
Industrial Internet is the cornerstone of industrial digitalization, and the future will focus on the transformation of the primary / secondary industries. We recently released "Industrial Internet Special Topics: restructuring production and Circulation, empowering all kinds of Industries" to explain the research experience in the past three years.
As the beginning of a series of topics on industry Internet benchmarking value extraction, we select League of Nations shares. Guolian shares are the Internet benchmark of the industrial products industry, and the information business has accumulated profound industrial resources for more than 20 years. The trading platform belongs to the single collection mode, which greatly reduces the cost and improves the efficiency of the industrial chain. Digital factories are based on transactions, pay based on results, and create vertical industrial Internet is the most promising!
20 years of focus on industrial products and services, continuous iteration of value
1) Industrial media started with 20 years of industrial accumulation data + users'"hidden assets"; 2) "Guolian Resources Network (Information Services, B2B1.0)-Duoduo e-commerce platform (transaction, 2.0)-Guolian Cloud (Industrial Services, 3.0)" model continued to iterate and gradually solve industrial pain points; 3) vertical development + horizontal extension + omni-directional industrial digital solution from transaction to production continued to grow.
Trading platform: return to single collection, strong bargaining & stable supply & short chain, reduce cost and improve efficiency for industrial chain 1) under the traditional industrial chain model, the dealer system has more trade chains and circulation links occupy more gross profits; while the company returns to single collection, shortens the trade chain, and does not compete with the upstream and downstream for profits, bringing more gross profit space for the upstream and downstream, the company's gross profit margin in the past three years is between 3-3.5%.
2) through scale bargaining, reduce customer procurement costs; provide rich categories, one-stop procurement, sunshine procurement, improve customer procurement efficiency; through continuous and stable bulk procurement and timely payment to suppliers, improve supplier sales efficiency. The overall large industrial chain reduces costs and improves efficiency.
3) the company first collects part of the deposit and then makes an upward visit order. In order to lock the supply of goods and ensure the supply of goods, it is necessary to pay a certain amount in advance to the upstream. In 2021, the company has 18.5 days of prepaid account turnover, 8.4 days of prepaid accounts receivable, 2.3 days of accounts receivable and 10.9 days of working capital turnover, which is different from that of dealers.
Digital factory: based on performance payment, easy to transform link, comprehensively improve factory efficiency on the basis of large-scale transactions on many platforms, deep supply chain and cloud factory, build "digital factory + PTD Cloud industrial Internet" through Guolian Cloud to realize the digitization of production / management / quality inspection / energy consumption / logistics, and co-link digital factories in the same industry chain, supply chain and value chain. Form a vertical industrial Internet service system with open and closed-loop data flow in the same direction.
The company has signed 53 cloud factories and is implementing 15 digital factories. The core reason for the smooth progress of the company is that it adopts the mode of first investment and then charging, that is, charging according to the effect of reducing cost and increasing efficiency, such as charging per ton of production tonnage, which is easy to be accepted by the factory.
Profit forecast and valuation: as an industrial Internet benchmark in the vertical industry, the company has first-mover advantages and upstream and downstream customer trust barriers, and the superiority of the model continues to be verified. it is estimated that the revenue from 2022-2024 will be 726max, 1,333,19.8 billion yuan, with an increase of 95%, 70%, 59%, 10.9980,012 million yuan, and 90%, 71%, 60%. The current market capitalization corresponds to a PE of 46amp 27max 17X, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the downside risk of industry prosperity, the aggravating risk of industry competition, and the development of new business is not as expected.