The national multi-site prevention and control policy was further optimized over the weekend.

For example, Shanghai, Kunming and Nanning announced that they would no longer check nucleic acid test negative certificates by rail transit; many shopping malls and residential areas in Shenzhen would no longer check nucleic acid; Chongqing said it was not necessary to do nucleic acid.

In this regard, a number of brokerage strategists began to be optimistic about the consumer sector:Citong Securities pointed out that reviewing the market performance after the relaxation of epidemic prevention in six regions of the world, consumption and leading the way in the cycle after the relaxation of epidemic prevention; Huatai also said that the victory rate of the downstream link dominated by consumption is significantly improving; China Post Securities even believes that consumption will dominate the market next year.

Looking back at the periphery, consumption performed better in the early stage of the epidemic.

Caitong Securities pointed out that reviewing the market performance after the relaxation of epidemic prevention in six regions of the worldConsumption and lead in the cycle after the relaxation of epidemic prevention. Specifically,

1) after the relaxation of epidemic prevention in most regions, the short-term economic recovery led the market to outperform. For example, after Vietnam adjusted its measures, it was 13% ahead of MSCI in February.

2) from a structural point of view, the large consumption damaged by the epidemic after the relaxation of epidemic prevention and pro-cyclical manufacturing take the lead, such as the relaxation of epidemic prevention in the United States within 3 months.Consumption (+ 11%), materials (+ 11%) and industry (+ 9%) lead the S & P 500.

On the subdivision of consumptionThe performance repair is slowAviation, tourism, hotels, cateringStock prices tend to be "safe", with gains concentrated in the month before the relaxation; stocks such as retail, which has a fast recovery, have won for a long time.

Among them, the areas where the performance of post-epidemic recovery has been repaired quickly, such asOffline retailIt is expected to continue to pick up and outperform the market. Sectors that benefited during the epidemicOnline retailOften after the epidemic prevention is relaxed for a period of time, the relative boom may peak and fall, corresponding to the weak market performance.

Societe Generale Securities also pointed out that by reviewing the economy and stock markets of the four overseas countries after the relaxation of epidemic prevention, it is found that the pace of profit repair in the industry, listed companies in all countries are basically in accordance with theFirst commodity consumption, real estate chain, and then service consumer sector performanceThe sequence of the repair.

The success rate of consumption is obviously increasing.

Huatai also said that the current consumption-oriented downstream link is significantly improving the winning rate.

First, benefiting from the continuous optimization of epidemic prevention policy, the scenario constraints of offline economic activities are released, considering that the current valuation quantiles of many consumer industries are still low after a substantial pullback, and their "odds-winning" comprehensive performance price is better.

Second, with reference to the recovery path of overseas areas, 2 months after the optimization of epidemic prevention policy, the offline economy will pick up, and the rhythm of offline economic recovery (more > South Korea) may be related to the level of aging (more and more).

Third, in terms of real estate policy, 11.28 the SFC introduced five measures to optimize equity financing for housing-related enterprises, marking the release of real estate financing constraints and a significant increase in the overall success rate of the real estate chain (including subsequent cyclical consumption).

Fourth, with reference to the calendar effect, statistics on the performance of A-shares in the past 12 years from early December to before the Central Economic work Conference, large consumption in the industry (catering, retail, etc.), real estate chain (home appliances, cement, etc.) and large finance are the advantages of clustering (the median absolute income is at the top).

Consumption may dominate the market next year.

The more optimistic China Post Securities believes that consumption will dominate the market next year.

It said that the consumer sector, which is mainly food and beverage, will usher in a big market throughout next year.

The fourth quarter of this year is the valuation repair expected by the improvement in prevention and control, correcting the overfall of the past two years, the performance repair with improved fundamentals in the first half of next year, and the 24-year overdraft valuation in the second half of next year.

Taken together, the opportunities for food and beverages will last for a year and will be the main line of the future market.

There is also a subdivision with less attention-- health products.

According to China Merchants, the sudden outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 led to a rapid increase in global demand for health products in a short period of time. The compound growth rate of the US VDS market was only 3.6% in the first five years, rebounded to 5.9% in the three years after the epidemic, and reached a double-digit growth rate of 11.6% in 2020.

It said that at the beginning of the outbreak, the pathogenicity of the virus was stronger, and consumers had a certain degree of panic buying, which led to inventory hoarding among consumers, terminals and channels. The current epidemic is the catalyst for the improvement of health demand, the short-term rigid demand for health products is a performance hedge against economic fluctuations, from a longer period, the industry is expected to further infiltrate.

At the same time, in the medium and long term, China's per capita consumption has more space than that of economically developed countries, which belongs to the medium-speed growth track.

Data show that in 21 years, the size of China's VDS market reached US $26.7 billion, second only to the United States, but its per capita consumption was only US $20.10, which is several times higher than that of the United States (US $104,104), Japan (US $91), Australia (US $76) and New Zealand (US $49).

In addition, due to the Quan Jian incident and the adjustment of health insurance policy, the overall attention of the capital market is low, which leads to the suppression of sector valuation, but from the perspective of net interest rate, roe and cash flow of individual stocks, it is on the high side as a whole.China Merchants believes that there is a strong certainty that the direction of the health products industry is improving.The plate has the margin of safety and the space for excess returns.