JOYY Inc. (NASDAQ:YY) Shares Could Be 46% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate
JOYY Inc. (NASDAQ:YY) Shares Could Be 46% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate
In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of JOYY Inc. (NASDAQ:YY) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
View our latest analysis for JOYY
The Calculation
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$174.8m | US$227.9m | US$246.1m | US$261.4m | US$274.3m | US$285.4m | US$295.2m | US$304.0m | US$312.2m | US$319.9m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x6 | Analyst x6 | Est @ 8.01% | Est @ 6.2% | Est @ 4.93% | Est @ 4.05% | Est @ 3.43% | Est @ 2.99% | Est @ 2.69% | Est @ 2.48% |
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.4% | US$161 | US$194 | US$193 | US$190 | US$184 | US$176 | US$168 | US$160 | US$152 | US$143 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$1.7b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.0%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.4%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$320m× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (8.4%– 2.0%) = US$5.1b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$5.1b÷ ( 1 + 8.4%)10= US$2.3b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$4.0b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$30.5, the company appears quite undervalued at a 46% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
NasdaqGS:YY Discounted Cash Flow December 1st 2022Important Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at JOYY as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.244. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Moving On:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For JOYY, there are three fundamental factors you should further research:
- Risks: As an example, we've found 4 warning signs for JOYY (1 can't be ignored!) that you need to consider before investing here.
- Future Earnings: How does YY's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
在本文中,我們將通過將預期的未來現金流折現到現值來估計歡聚(納斯達克代碼:YY)的內在價值。這將使用貼現現金流(DCF)模型來實現。它真的沒有那麼多東西,儘管它可能看起來相當複雜。
對公司的估值可以有很多種方式,因此我們要指出,貼現現金流並不適用於每一種情況。任何有興趣瞭解更多內在價值的人,都應該閲讀一下Simply Wall St.的分析模型。
查看我們對JOYY的最新分析
計算
我們使用所謂的兩階段模型,也就是説,公司的現金流有兩個不同的增長率。一般來説,第一階段是較高增長階段,第二階段是較低增長階段。首先,我們需要估計未來十年的現金流。在可能的情況下,我們使用分析師的估計,但當這些估計不可用時,我們會根據上次估計或報告的價值推斷先前的自由現金流(FCF)。我們假設,自由現金流萎縮的公司將減緩收縮速度,而自由現金流增長的公司在這段時間內的增長速度將放緩。我們這樣做是為了反映出,增長在最初幾年往往比後來幾年放緩得更多。
一般來説,我們假設今天的一美元比未來的一美元更有價值,因此我們需要對這些未來現金流的總和進行貼現,以得出現值估計:
10年自由現金流(FCF)預測
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
槓桿式FCF(百萬美元) | 1.748億美元 | 2.279億美元 | 2.461億美元 | 2.614億美元 | 2.743億美元 | 2.854億美元 | 2.952億美元 | 3.04億美元 | 3.122億美元 | 3.199億美元 |
增長率預估來源 | 分析師x6 | 分析師x6 | Est@8.01% | Est@6.2% | Est@4.93% | Est@4.05% | Est@3.43% | Est@2.99% | Est@2.69% | Est@2.48% |
現值(美元,百萬)貼現8.4% | 161美元 | 194美元 | 193美元 | 190美元 | 184美元 | 176美元 | 168美元 | 160美元 | 152美元 | 143美元 |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.預估的FCF成長率)
10年期現金流現值(PVCF)=17億美元
在計算了最初10年內未來現金流的現值後,我們需要計算終止值,它考慮了第一階段之後的所有未來現金流。戈登增長公式用於計算終端價值,其未來年增長率等於10年期政府債券收益率2.0%的5年平均水平。我們以8.4%的權益成本將終端現金流貼現至今天的價值。
終端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=3.2億美元×(1+2.0%)?(8.4%-2.0%)=51億美元
終值現值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=51億美元?(1+8.4%)10=23億美元
總價值是未來十年的現金流總和加上貼現的終端價值,得出總股本價值,在本例中為40億美元。在最後一步,我們用股本價值除以流通股的數量。相對於目前30.5美元的股價,該公司的估值似乎相當低,較目前的股價有46%的折扣。然而,估值是不精確的工具,更像是一臺望遠鏡--移動幾度,就會到達另一個星系。一定要記住這一點。
NasdaqGS:2022年12月1日YY貼現現金流重要假設
現在,貼現現金流最重要的投入是貼現率,當然還有實際現金流。您不必同意這些輸入,我建議您自己重新計算並使用它們。DCF也沒有考慮一個行業可能的週期性,也沒有考慮一家公司未來的資本要求,因此它沒有給出一家公司潛在業績的全貌。鑑於我們將JOYY視為潛在股東,股權成本被用作貼現率,而不是佔債務的資本成本(或加權平均資本成本,WACC)。在這個計算中,我們使用了8.4%,這是基於槓桿率為1.244的測試值。貝塔係數是衡量一隻股票相對於整個市場的波動性的指標。我們的貝塔係數來自全球可比公司的行業平均貝塔係數,強制限制在0.8到2.0之間,這是一個穩定業務的合理範圍。
下一步:
雖然貼現現金流的計算很重要,但它只是一家公司需要評估的眾多因素之一。貼現現金流模型並不是投資估值的全部。相反,貼現現金流模型的最佳用途是測試某些假設和理論,看看它們是否會導致公司被低估或高估。例如,公司權益成本或無風險利率的變化可能會對估值產生重大影響。我們能弄清楚為什麼該公司的股價低於內在價值嗎?對於JOYY,有三個基本因素你應該進一步研究:
- 風險:舉個例子,我們發現JOYY的4個警告標誌(1不容忽視!)你在這裏投資之前需要考慮的問題。
- 未來收益:YY的增長率與同行和更廣泛的市場相比如何?通過與我們的免費分析師增長預期圖表互動,更深入地挖掘分析師對未來幾年的共識數字。
- 其他穩固的企業:低債務、高股本回報率和良好的過去業績是強勁業務的基礎。為什麼不探索我們具有堅實商業基本面的股票的互動列表,看看是否有其他您可能沒有考慮過的公司!
PS.Simply Wall St.每天更新每隻美國股票的貼現現金流計算,所以如果你想找出任何其他股票的內在價值,只需搜索此處。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
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