Optimism Fades as South Africa's Debt Jumps -- Barrons.com
Optimism Fades as South Africa's Debt Jumps -- Barrons.com
DJ Optimism Fades as South Africa's Debt Jumps -- Barrons.com
DJ樂觀情緒消退，南非債務飆升--Barrons.com
By Craig Mellow
克雷格·梅洛(Craig Mello)著
After an impressive January, South Africa turned into the sick man of emerging markets in February.
在經歷了令人印象深刻的1月份之後，南非在2月份變成了新興市場的病夫。
The iShares MSCI South Africa exchange-traded fund (ticker: EZA) has lost 7% this month, against a 1.5% dip in global emerging markets. Its currency, the rand, is off 5% against the dollar.
IShares MSCI南非交易所交易基金(股票代碼：EZA)本月下跌了7%，而全球新興市場下跌了1.5%。其貨幣蘭特兑美元下跌5%。
A Feb. 20 budget presentation by Minister of Finance Tito Mboweni only compounded the gloom. He cut an already anemic 2019 growth forecast to 1.5%, and projected budget deficits around 4.5% of gross domestic product for the foreseeable future. "While I never expected a positive budget speech, there was significantly more slippage than expected," says Schalk Louw, a portfolio manager at PSG Wealth in Cape Town.
財政部長蒂託·姆博維尼(Tito MBoweni)2月20日提交的預算報告只會加劇悲觀情緒。他將本已疲弱的2019年經濟增長預期下調至1.5%，並預計在可預見的未來，預算赤字約佔國內生產總值(GDP)的4.5%。PSG Wealth駐開普敦的投資組合經理沙爾克·洛(Schalk Louw)表示：“雖然我從未預料到會有一個積極的預算演講，但預算下滑的幅度比預期的要大得多。”
The proximate cause of South Africa's downturn has been power outages that highlighted the financial woes of state utility Eskom, whose debt ballooned to 10% of national GDP under disgraced former President Jacob Zuma. Eskom's debt-servicing costs are nearly twice its free cash flow, calculates Sandy McGregor, a portfolio manager at Africa-focused wealth manager Allan Gray.
南非經濟低迷的直接原因是停電，突顯了國有公用事業公司Eskom的財務困境。在名譽掃地的前總統雅各布·祖馬(Jacob Zuma)的領導下，Eskom的債務飆升至全國GDP的10%。據專注於非洲的財富管理公司Allan Gray的投資組合經理桑迪·麥格雷戈(Sandy McGregor)計算，Eskom的償債成本幾乎是自由現金流的兩倍。
The broader issue is the cautious, some might say crawling, pace adopted by current President Cyril Ramaphosa in cleaning up the multifarious mess that Zuma left behind. Ramaphosa, who unseated Zuma as African National Congress chairman by a whisker in late 2017, has prioritized holding the fractious ruling party together at least until elections this May. "The market wants action yesterday, but given the political calendar, the government can't deliver right now," says Kaan Nazli, senior economist for emerging markets debt at Neuberger Berman. Ramaphosa's position on Eskom is typical -- demanding budget cuts, but without layoffs.
更廣泛的問題是現任總統西里爾·拉馬福薩(Cyril Ramaphosa)在清理祖馬留下的五花八門的爛攤子時採取的謹慎步伐，有些人可能會説是爬行。拉馬福薩在2017年底以微弱優勢取代祖馬擔任非洲人國民大會(African National Congress)主席，他優先考慮至少在今年5月的選舉之前保持難以駕馭的執政黨團結在一起。紐伯格伯曼(Neuberger Berman)新興市場債務高級經濟學家卡恩·納茲利(Kaan Nazli)表示：“市場昨天希望採取行動，但考慮到政治日程，政府目前無法兑現承諾。”拉馬福薩在Eskom問題上的立場是典型的--要求削減預算，但不裁員。
The president won't have a magic wand after the expected ANC victory, either, McGregor warns. South Africa's commodities-based growth model fizzled after prices for exports like gold and platinum crashed from 2012 to 2014. But it substantially priced itself out of manufacturing investment with wages that have grown 30% faster than GDP for the past decade. Moves toward competitiveness confront labor unions, which remain a cornerstone of the ANC coalition, and statist reflexes that stymie even common-sense measures like easing visa restrictions for skilled foreign workers. "I'm skeptical about reforms accelerating postelection, " McGregor says. "South African business is tied up by bureaucracy."
麥格雷戈警告説，在非國大預期的勝利之後，總統也不會有魔杖。在2012年至2014年黃金和鉑金等出口商品價格暴跌後，南非以大宗商品為基礎的增長模式宣告失敗。但在過去十年裏，工資增長速度比GDP快30%，這大大阻礙了製造業投資。工會面臨着提高競爭力的舉措，工會仍然是非國大聯盟的基石，而中央集權主義的反應甚至阻礙了一些常識措施，比如放鬆對外國熟練工人的簽證限制。麥格雷戈説：“我對加快選舉後的改革持懷疑態度。”“南非的商業被官僚作風束縛住了。”
Nor will markets necessarily wait patiently until May. Moody's, the only global credit agency that still ranks South African's sovereign debt as investment grade, is due to revisit that judgment in late March. The investor consensus is that Moody's may shift its outlook to negative without actually downgrading. But a surprise downgrade to junk status would force global fixed-income funds to withdraw $10 billion from the market, or about a quarter of the country's currency reserves, Nazli says.
市場也不一定耐心等待到5月份。穆迪(Moody‘s)是唯一一家仍將南非主權債務列為投資級的全球信用機構，它將在3月下旬重新審視這一判斷。投資者的共識是，穆迪可能會在不實際下調評級的情況下將評級展望調至負面。但納茲利説，如果評級意外下調至垃圾級，將迫使全球固定收益基金從市場撤出100億美元，約佔該國外匯儲備的四分之一。
Ramaphosa's go-slow politics has its benefits. He has defused, for now, the explosive issue of land redistribution, delegating it to open-ended blue-ribbon commissions while emotions have a chance to cool. Investors are hopeful for an eventual compromise that focuses on state land giveaways, while leaving the country's critical crop-export sector little harmed. Where the president has moved, it has been in the right direction, installing respected professionals at Eskom and other woebegone arms of the state.
拉馬福薩的慢條斯理的政治有它的好處。目前，他已經化解了爆炸性的土地再分配問題，將其委託給不限成員名額的藍絲帶委員會，同時情緒有機會降温。投資者對最終達成妥協抱有希望，該妥協將重點放在國有土地贈送上，同時使該國關鍵的農作物出口部門幾乎不受損害。在總統採取行動的地方，它一直在朝着正確的方向前進，在Eskom和其他陷入困境的國家分支機構安插了受人尊敬的專業人員。
"South Africa needs one thing to reverse its problems, and that is confidence," local investor Louw says. "Any possible improvement can bring about a massive reversal to a value market." It's hard to see the trigger for at least the next few months, though.
“南非需要一件事來扭轉它的問題，那就是信心，”當地投資者Louw説。“任何可能的改善都可能給價值市場帶來巨大的逆轉。”不過，至少在接下來的幾個月裏，很難看到觸發因素。
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
(完)道瓊通訊社
February 22, 2019 11:14 ET (16:14 GMT)
2019年2月22日美國東部時間11：14(格林尼治標準時間16：14)
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