This report is read as follows:
Under the influence of downward overseas demand, the company's Q3 revenue is under short-term pressure, product structure optimization brings better profitability, and the two rounds of electrification and energy storage of the company's card position are still high-speed growth tracks in the medium and long term.
Main points of investment:
Maintain the target price to 75.52 yuan and maintain the overweight rating. Considering the pressure of overseas demand, the company's EPS from 2022 to 2024 is expected to be 1.690.242.80.234.12 (+ 0.11RMB), maintaining the target price of 75.52RMB, corresponding to 27 times PE in 2023.
European demand disturbance, Q3 revenue, performance under pressure. From January to September, the company achieved an income of 1.72 billion yuan, an increase of 14.7%, and a net profit of 120 million yuan, an increase of 37%. Of this total, the company's Q3 income was 490 million yuan, an increase of 2.4%, a decrease of 28.7%; a net profit of 43 million yuan, an increase of 1147% (mainly from a low base last year), a decrease of 19%; and a net profit of 41 million yuan, an increase of 45%. The company's income mainly comes from overseas markets dominated by Europe, which is affected by European macro factors, weak demand, and short-term pressure on the company's revenue and performance.
Profitability increased month-on-month, and high R & D investment ensured long-term growth. The company's Q3 gross profit margin is 19.5%, with an increase of 1.5pct, with a decrease of 1.5pct, and a net profit of 8.8%, an increase of 1.0pct and an increase of 8.1pct. Due to the optimization of product structure and the improvement of exchange rate, the company's profitability has been restored. The company's Q3 R & D expenditure rate is 6.4%, a quarterly high, and R & D investment continues to rise, mainly due to the company's increased product layout in the future.
The company's card position electric two wheels + energy storage and other high growth track, short-term external disturbance does not change the company's long-term growth space. The global two-wheel electrification and energy storage space is huge, the company ploughs the field of electric bikes, electric motorcycles and small energy storage, has rich customized development experience, and has accumulated deep reputation and channels in the industry. We believe that short-term external disturbances will not change the company's growth momentum.
Risk tips: rising prices of raw materials, weak overseas demand and intensified competition in the industry.