$Meituan-W (03690.HK)$Third-quarter results will be released this Friday (November 25).

According to Bloomberg consensus expectations, Meituan 2022Q3 is expected to achieve revenue of 62.386 billion yuan; adjusted net profit of 864 million yuan; adjusted earnings per share of 0.16 yuan.

On November 16, when Tencent released its Q3 financial results, it announced that it would reduce its stake in Meituan in the form of a dividend, which meant that Tencent would withdraw from Meituan on a large scale, suppressing Meituan's market sentiment and closing down 5.7% the next day. However, the share price continued to be sharply active on the 18th, up 9% at one point, and almost recovered the previous day's loss by the close.

At present, investors are concerned about what kind of three-quarter report Meituan will hand over, and whether it can dispel the haze of market sentiment after Tencent's reduction of holdings.

Takeout business: the growth rate continues to recover, and flash purchases maintain a high growth rate

In the third quarter, the epidemic still rebounded, affected by the epidemic, take-out orders and arrival business recovery slightly lower than expected, but flash purchases maintained a high growth rate.

GF Securities Co., LTD. pointed out that takeout recovered well in July and August, and was repeatedly affected by the epidemic in September. Q3 takeout revenue is expected to be 33.44 billion yuan, an increase of 26.3 percent over the same period last year; takeout orders are 4.615 billion, an increase of 15 percent over the same period last year, corresponding to Q3 daily average of 50.16 million orders; Q3 takeout business has adjusted operating profit of 3.946 billion yuan, profit maintenance is good.

China Merchants saidIn terms of flash purchases, it is expected that Q3 will continue to maintain high growth, with Q3 unit volume increasing by 45% year-on-year to 450 million units.About 10% of the catering takeout level; GTV was 33.3 billion, up 62.8% from the same period last year; revenue was 2.88 billion, up 52.2% from the same period last year. Q3 flash purchase has cooperation with Apple Inc, SUNING and so on. The continuous development of flash purchase to digital 3C and other high customer items is conducive to the improvement of customer unit price.

Soochow Securities also spoke highly of flash purchases. Soochow Securities believes that real-time retail is still in the stage of rapid development, the penetration rate is still low, and the profit optimization space of flash purchase is also very obvious. Among them, the unit price of customers will increase with the arrival of more FMCG and 3C brands and the increase in the proportion of non-pharmaceuticals, distribution services are expected to adopt a step-by-step charging model, single average distribution revenue will increase steadily, and the monetization of advertising will increase as more high-quality merchants go online and the importance of real-time retail platforms increases.

At the same time, user subsidies and other operating expenses are expected to be diluted with the increase of unit volume and customer unit price. In a comprehensive wayIt is estimated that Meituan's average profit per flash purchase is expected to surpass that of takeout to 1.20 yuan in 2025.

Wine travel to the store: the progress of recovery slowed down under the influence of the epidemic, but operating profit margins improved.

In the later period of Q3, there was a significant rebound due to the epidemic. In 7-8-9, the food and beverage revenue of Zizhong Food and Beverage was-1.5%, 8.4%, 1.7%, respectively, compared with the same period last year. The recovery rate of the hotel wine and travel business was slowed down by this in the later stage.

Citic Construction Investment pointed out that due to the overall improvement of the epidemic in the third quarter, combined with the factors of the summer peak season, the growth rate of arrival to stores rebounded significantly from July to August, in which the rebound in meal delivery was relatively stronger, and the growth of night volume among hotels was significantly higher than that in June.

Similar to the pace of the takeout business, the recovery of the hotel wine and travel business was disrupted again in September by the epidemic.Meituan's revenue from wine travel to the store is expected to be about 9.7 billion yuan in the third quarter, an increase of 13% over the same period last year.Looking forward to the fourth quarter, considering the low base in the same period last year, under the premise that the epidemic does not deteriorate significantly, the recovery trend of wine travel to stores is still expected to continue.

Guoxin Securities said that due to changes in income structure and cost optimizationIt is estimated that the operating profit margin of the hotel wine tour in the third quarter is 46.3%, which is higher than the same period last year and month-on-month.

New business: continue to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and improve operational efficiency significantly

Guoxin Securities expectsMeituan's new business revenue will reach 16.2 billion yuan in the third quarter, an increase of 39% over the same period last year.Among them, Meituan's optimization is also affected by the pace of recovery of the epidemic, and the overall growth is steady.

It is estimated that the overall operating loss of the new business in the third quarter is 7.3 billion yuan, with an operating loss rate of 45%.The month-on-month increase in the total loss is mainly due to the expansion of the order scale of the shopping and selection business after the resumption of the epidemic, but from the operating loss rate, the loss was reduced by 3%, mainly due to the optimization of costs and expenses.

Citic Construction Investment also believes that Meituan preferably picked up gradually and healthily after the epidemic, and recently the brand was upgraded to tomorrow's supermarket.It is expected that the operating efficiency will continue to be optimized in the future.

With the release of Q2 epidemic control cities one after another, ride-hailing business gradually returned to normal; portable battery, shopping, fast donkey, cycling and other business efficiency continued to improve, and the scale of losses decreased significantly. The future resource allocation and strategic investment of the new business will take into account the epidemic situation and the continuous dynamic adjustment of the performance of the main business, continue to iterate the business model, taking into account the growth of scale and the improvement of operational efficiency.