MW The junk bond market has good things to say about the stock market
MW The junk bond market has good things to say about the stock market
MW The junk bond market has good things to say about the stock market
MW 關於股票市場，垃圾債券市場有好話要說
By Ivan Martchev
作者：伊萬·馬爾切夫
Junk bonds, which tend to be a predictor for stocks, are at 52-week highs
垃圾債券往往是股票的預測指標，目前處於52周高位
It takes 35 years in the trenches of the junk bond market for an investment professional to come up with a one-liner that summarizes the volatility of low-grade debt: "It reads like a bond, but trades like a stock."
投資專業人士在垃圾債券市場的困境中花了35年的時間才能想出一個總結低等級債務波動性的單行話：“它讀起來像債券，但交易方式像股票。”
As junk bond spreads were blowing out in January 2016, the price of oil price was collapsing and I sought the advice of a seasoned bond trader on some legacy junk bond positions for a new client. It looked like those low-rated bonds were about to go to high-yield heaven. The bond trader, Mike Lanier, was remarkably calm. Upon kicking the tires on all these legacy bond positions, he uttered this conclusion:
隨着2016年1月垃圾債券利差的飆升，油價暴跌，我就新客戶的一些傳統垃圾債券頭寸向一位經驗豐富的債券交易員徵求了建議。看來那些低評級的債券即將走向高收益天堂。債券交易員邁克·拉尼爾非常冷靜。在解開所有這些傳統債券頭寸後，他得出了這樣的結論：
"Junk bonds are priced for a recession, but there is no recession in the U.S. Junk (as a category) should see a pretty good rebound from here if there is no recession this year, and I don't think there will be."
“垃圾債券是以衰退爲定價的，但美國沒有衰退。如果今年沒有衰退，垃圾債券（作爲一個類別）應該會有相當不錯的反彈，我認爲不會出現衰退。”
There was no recession in 2016, but commodity prices had collapsed because of the dramatic slowdown in the Chinese economy. This is relevant in early 2019, as we have another slowdown in China, the price of oil fell from $77 to $42 during the fourth quarter, and the Trump administration is pushing hard to make a trade deal by the March 1 deadline. So what are junk bonds telling us now?
2016年沒有出現衰退，但由於中國經濟急劇放緩，大宗商品價格暴跌。這在2019年初很重要，因爲中國再次放緩，石油價格在第四季度從77美元跌至42美元，特朗普政府正在努力爭取在3月1日的最後期限之前達成貿易協議。那麼垃圾債券現在在告訴我們甚麼？
Junk bonds, and stocks for that matter, have come a long way from the dark days of January 2016, when stocks recorded their worst monthly performance for any January on record. In 2019, we just had the best January performance since 1987, so I thought it would make sense to see how the junk bond market has done, if it has indeed confirmed what we have been seeing in the stock market.
垃圾債券和股票與2016年1月的黑暗日子相比已經走了很長一段路，當時股票創下了有記錄以來最差的月度表現。2019年，我們剛剛創下了自1987年以來最好的1月份表現，所以我認爲如果垃圾債券市場的表現確實證實了我們在股市所看到的情況，那麼看看垃圾債券市場的表現是有意義的。
For that purpose, I pulled up a chart of the most liquid and biggest (in market size) junk bond ETF, with assets of $14.8 billion -- the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG).
爲此，我列出了流動性最強、規模最大（按市場規模計算）的垃圾債券ETF——iShares iboxX $高收益公司債券ETF（HYG），其資產爲148億美元。
What did I see? A 52-week high! (see chart (https://ibb.co/SBVF9X8).)
我看見了甚麼？創下 52 周新高！（見圖表 (https://ibb.co/SBVF9X8)。）
"No way," I thought.
“不可能，” 我想。
This has to be some technicality, I thought. What about those other junk bond ETFs? I started going down the list of junk bond ETFs with the most assets. (They tend to have the heaviest trading volumes and least tracking errors, which the ETF industry is famous for, so spot-checking how junk bonds are doing with several of the most liquid ones would give me a better picture of the situation in the junk bond market.)
我想，這一定是一些技術問題。其他那些垃圾債券交易所買賣基金呢？我開始在資產最多的垃圾債券ETF名單中名列前茅。（它們的交易量往往最大，跟蹤錯誤也最少，這是ETF行業聞名的，因此，用幾種流動性最高的債券抽查一下垃圾債券的表現可以讓我更好地瞭解垃圾債券市場的情況。）
One after the other, they showed 52-week highs. When I got to No. 6 on the list, Pimco 0-5 Year High Yield Corporate Bond Index Fund (HYS), there were no 52-week highs yet, but the rebound had made it to $99.07 (as of the time of this writing), while the 52-week high from the fourth quarter of 2018 was $99.23. For all intents and purposes, HYS had also matched its previous high from 2018 (see table (https://ibb.co/zxBpVr5)).
它們一個接一個地創下了52周的高點。當我在榜單上排名第六的Pimco 0-5年期高收益公司債券指數基金（HYS）時，還沒有52周的高點，但反彈已達到99.07美元（截至撰寫本文時），而自2018年第四季度以來的52周高點爲99.23美元。無論出於何種意圖和目的，HYS也創下了自2018年以來的高點（見表 (https://ibb.co/zxBpVr5)）。
What new highs for junk bond ETFs might mean
垃圾債券ETF的新高可能意味着甚麼
What does all this mean for the S&P 500 ? Many retail investors don't know about the close correlation between the junk bond market and the stock market. While not a guarantee, junk bond ETFs at 52-week highs certainly suggest that stocks are heading to new highs as well.
所有這些對標準普爾500指數意味着甚麼？許多散戶投資者不知道垃圾債券市場與股票市場之間的密切關係。雖然不能保證，但垃圾債券ETF處於52周高位，這無疑表明股票也將走向新高。
At the onset of the fourth-quarter sell-off in the stock market, I kept a close eye on junk bond spreads and they were remarkably calm in October, although they did widen more notably in November and December as the wheels came off the wagon in the crude oil market. (A big part of the shale boom in the U.S., now the world's largest producer of crude oil, is financed with high-yield debt. Falling oil prices mean less cash flows for interest payments, hence low oil prices tend to pressure junk bond spreads.)
在股市第四季度拋售開始時，我一直密切關注垃圾債券利差，10月份的利差異非常平靜，儘管隨着原油市場的復甦，11月和12月的利差確實有所擴大。（美國現在是世界上最大的原油生產國，頁岩繁榮的很大一部分是由高收益債務融資的。油價下跌意味着用於支付利息的現金流減少，因此低油價往往會給垃圾債券利差帶來壓力。）
Still, what I found remarkable about the fourth-quarter sell-off for stocks was that there was absolutely no warning from the junk bond market. That told me it was not an economic problem that was pressuring the stock market. For more, see "Junk bonds are sending the stock market a reassuring message (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/junk-bonds-are-sending-the-stock-market-a-reassuring-message-2018-11-01)."
儘管如此，我發現第四季度股票拋售的顯著之處在於，垃圾債券市場絕對沒有發出任何警告。這告訴我，給股市帶來壓力的不是經濟問題。欲瞭解更多信息，請參閱 “垃圾債券向股市發出了令人放心的信息（http://www.marketwatch.com/story/junk-bonds-are-sending-the-stock-market-a-reassuring-message-2018-11-01）。”
At the risk of sounding like an old-timer, the stock market tends to go where the economy goes, at least over the longer term, so I am not surprised to see this big rebound in stocks in early 2019. Many of the concerns that were pressuring the stock market -- such as the constant Presidential Twitter Attacks on the Federal Reserve chairman, the Fed itself sounding hawkish, and frictions with China -- have turned around. I still believe that a trade deal with China will serve as a catalyst for stocks.
儘管聽起來像個老派，但股市往往會隨經濟走向何方，至少從長遠來看是如此，因此，看到2019年初股市大幅反彈我並不感到驚訝。許多給股市施壓的擔憂，例如總統在推特上對美聯儲主席的持續攻擊、美聯儲本身聽起來很鷹派，以及與中國的摩擦，已經扭轉了局面。我仍然相信與中國的貿易協議將成爲股票的催化劑。
If the junk bond market is any indicator, the S&P 500 should make a fresh all-time high in 2019.
如果垃圾債券市場可以作爲指標，那麼標準普爾500指數應該在2019年創下歷史新高。
Ivan Martchev is an investment strategist with institutional money manager Navellier and Associates (https://navellier.com/).
伊萬·馬爾切夫是機構基金經理Navellier and Associates（https://navellier.com/）的投資策略師。
-Ivan Martchev; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com
-伊萬·馬爾切夫；415-439-6400；AskNewswires@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
（END）道瓊斯通訊社
February 15, 2019 08:23 ET (13:23 GMT)
美國東部時間 2019 年 2 月 15 日 08:23（格林尼治標準時間 13:23）
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