This report is read as follows:
The company's results in the first three quarters of 22 years were lower than expected. The company insists on reducing costs and increasing efficiency, improving operation and management ability; at the same time, the company optimizes the structure of major carbon steel products to enhance profitability. As demand improves, its performance is still expected to recover gradually.
Main points of investment:
Maintain the "overweight" rating. In the first three quarters of 22, the company achieved revenue of 36.5 billion yuan, down 9.6% from the same period last year; the net profit returned to the mother was-1.528 billion yuan, down 161.55% from the same period last year, and the performance was lower than expected. Taking into account the pressure on both ends of the company's revenue and cost, the company's EPS forecast for 2022-24 is-0.24 shock 0.06 pound 0.16 yuan (the original 0.26 pound 0.27 pound 0.29 yuan), and the corresponding return net profit is-15.27 shock 405 pound 1.01 billion yuan respectively. Consider the plate valuation adjustment, with reference to similar companies to give the company 22 times PB valuation, downgrade the target price to 1.96 yuan (the original 2.60 yuan), to maintain the "overweight" rating.
Short-term performance is under pressure and is expected to recover gradually in the later stage. In 22 years, the overall demand was weak, and steel prices showed a concussive downward trend; although raw material prices fell somewhat after a sharp rise, the overall raw material price drop was lower than that of finished material prices, constantly squeezing the company's profit margin at the end of the first-third quarter of 22 years. The company's gross profit margin was 8.2%, 6.71% and 3.45% respectively, the company's gross profit margin continued to decline, and the performance was under short-term pressure. However, we believe that in the context of steady growth, the resilience of steel demand is still there, and the profits of the company's steel sector are expected to recover gradually.
Persist in reducing costs and increasing efficiency, and the three fees per ton of steel have continued to decline. In the first three quarters of 2022, the company's per-ton steel sales, management and financial expenses were 168 yuan, 101 yuan and 58 yuan per ton, respectively, down 8.59%, 5.57% and 13.28% compared with 21 years. The company insists on reducing costs internally to increase efficiency and improve its operation and management capacity.
Optimize the structure of carbon steel products and improve the profitability of carbon steel products. The company's carbon steel sales account for about 90% of the total sales, and carbon steel products are still the company's main products. At present, the company is steadily promoting the construction of "product structure optimization and upgrading of carbon steel sheet plant-hot rolling pickling galvanized aluminum magnesium project". After the project is completed, it will help the company to expand the variety of carbon steel strip products and optimize the carbon steel product structure. enhance the added value of the company's carbon steel strip products.
Risk hint: the progress of the product structure optimization and upgrading project is slow, and the downstream demand has dropped sharply.
