Revenue grew steadily and net profit fell sharply. In the first three quarters of 2022, the company realized operating income of 27.828 billion yuan (+ 25.52%), net profit of 221 million yuan (- 50.99%) and non-return net profit of 73 million yuan (- 79.52%). In the third quarter of 2022, the company implemented operating income of 11.678 billion yuan (+ 48.77%), net profit of 269 million yuan and non-return net profit of 210 million yuan, thus turning losses into profits over the same period last year. The company's revenue growth is mainly due to the increase in electricity generation and electricity prices. In the first three quarters, the company generated 46.527 billion kilowatt-hours (+ 3.88%) and 44.427 billion kilowatt-hours (+ 4.28%), with an average electricity price of 0.61 yuan / kwh (+ 22.00%). The sharp decline in net profit was mainly due to the increase in fuel costs.
The company's thermal power business profits are expected to continue to repair. The national policy promotes the coal supply and price adjustment, the coal long-term association coverage, implementation rate and performance rate are increased, and the company's thermal power fuel cost is expected to decline; at the same time, the coal power market-oriented transaction electricity price rises, hedging the fuel cost pressure, 2022Q3, the company's market-oriented trading electricity is 29.801 billion kWh, accounting for 67.08% of online electricity, an increase of 70.66% over the same period last year.
The completion of a non-public offering will speed up the development of offshore wind power projects. In July 2022, the company completed a private offering. The non-public offering object is the company's controlling shareholder National Electric Investment Group, the number of shares issued is 199.5794 million shares, the issue price is 6.17 yuan per share, raising 1.231 billion yuan for the construction of 1.5 million kilowatt offshore wind power projects. With the funds raised in place, the company will speed up the construction of offshore wind power projects, and the installed scale of Fengguang new energy continues to increase, promoting the growth of the company's performance.
The coal-fired power generation project in Hunutru, Turkey has been put into operation, gradually releasing profits. The No. 1 and No. 2 units of the Hunutru coal-fired power generation project in Turkey were put into commercial operation in June and October 2022 respectively. A total of two 660000 kilowatt ultra-supercritical coal-fired generating units were built in the project, with a total installed capacity of 1.32 million kilowatts. It is estimated that about 9 billion kilowatt hours of electricity will be supplied to Turkey each year. With the commissioning of the coal-fired power generation project in Hunutru, Turkey, on the one hand, the installed scale of the company has increased, and the scale of power generation has further increased; on the other hand, electricity prices in Turkey have risen sharply, making the project more profitable and significantly thickening the company's profit level.
Risk hints: industry policies are not as expected; electricity consumption is declining; coal prices remain high; electricity prices are falling; and new energy projects are not as expected.
Investment suggestion: the estimated return net profit is 9.4,24.6 and 3.18 billion yuan respectively, with an increase of 163% and 29% from 2023 to 2024 compared with the same period last year. EPS is 0.36,0.94,1.22 yuan, and the current stock price corresponds to 27.2,10.4 and 8.0x of PE. The profit repair of the company's thermal power business is expected to continue 61, and the commissioning of projects in Turkey will bring new profit growth points. at the same time, the company will continue to promote the construction of scenic new energy projects and vigorously develop three new industries, such as comprehensive smart energy, to expand new increments in performance. Give the company 12-13 times PE782 in 2023, corresponding to the reasonable value of 11.28-12.22 yuan per share, with a premium of 16% to 25% over the current share price, covering 20w for the first time and giving a "buy" rating.