This report is read as follows:
Q3 performance is in line with market expectations, aramid business opens room for growth, and Lianyungang C 3 projects have successively contributed to the increase.
Main points of investment:
Maintain the "overweight" rating. Benefiting from the arrival of the company's new project, we have raised the company's 2022 EPS and lowered the 2023 EPS to 0.65 EPS 0.76 yuan, respectively, and the new 2024 EPS to 0.99 yuan (the original 0.57 pound 1.04 yuan in 2022-2023). Combined with comparable company valuation, give 17XPE raised the target price to 12.92 yuan (the original 12.55 yuan), "overweight" rating.
Q3 performance is in line with market expectations. In the first three quarters of 2022, the company achieved operating income of 65.939 billion yuan, year-on-year + 27% (excluding Yangnong), and net profit of 1.29 billion yuan, about + 80% year-on-year (excluding Yangnong). Among them, Q3 achieved revenue of 21.526 billion yuan in a single quarter, + 10.56% compared with the same period last year. Q3 returned to the mother of 315 million yuan compared with-15.81%, + 21.01% and-45.69%.
Aramid business open room for growth: global aramid business high growth, in lithium battery pack, wastewater ultrafiltration membrane opened new applications, the potential incremental market of more than 20000 tons / year. At present, the company's 5000 tons / year alignment aramid shows full production and full sales, and has stable sales in the lower reaches of electronic communications, rubber reinforcement, individual protection, composite materials and so on. The gross profit margin of Q3 aramid business increased by 130% month-on-month, of which high-strength and high-mold products accounted for 75% of aramid output. The company's aramid production capacity will be expanded to 8000 tons / year by the end of 2023, further starting growth.
The Lianyungang project has been put into production one after another, and the project profit is expected: the carbon three industry chain project of 2022H1 Company has successively realized the production of ECH, epoxy resin, ionic membrane caustic soda, hydrogen peroxide and other devices. Referring to the average product price in the first three quarters, the return profit of the previous year is better than expected. Compared with the chlorohydrin process, the new HPPO process of propylene oxide in the company has the advantages of cleanliness and energy saving. With the production capacity of the company's C 3 project running through the whole 2023Q1 line, the advantage of integration is significantly reflected. At that time, the company's products are expected to be sold in domestic and foreign markets, as well as downstream wind power and other emerging areas, which is expected to greatly increase the performance.
Risk hint: the project progress is not as expected, the demand is not as expected, and the raw material price fluctuates greatly.