This report is read as follows:
Due to the contraction of downstream demand and the price of raw materials, the company's 22Q3 performance is lower than expected, but the company's Mini-LED reflector and lithium diaphragm will continue to provide growth momentum for the company.
Main points of investment:
Maintain the holding increase rating. Affected by the contraction in consumer electronics demand and the rise in raw material prices, we have lowered our company's EPS forecast for 2022-2024 to 0.54 (- 0.11) / 0.89 (- 0.18) /
1.10
(- 0.07) yuan, with reference to the comparable company valuation level to give the company 25 times PE in 2023, lowering the target price to 22.25 yuan (- 1.29) yuan.
The performance was lower than expected, affected by the contraction of downstream demand and the rise in the price of raw materials. The company realized operating income of 847 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2022,-11.15% of the same period last year, and net profit of 111 million yuan, 23.76% of the same period last year. 22Q3 achieved revenue of 302 million yuan per quarter, year-on-year-14.71%, net profit of 31 million yuan, year-on-year-43.27%, gross profit of 24.77%, year-on-year-9.14pcts, month-on-month-2.34pcts, net profit rate of 10.22%, year-on-year-5.14pcts, month-on-month-7.18pcts. The decline in revenue and profit is mainly due to (1) the decrease in revenue from products such as reflector due to the contraction in demand in the consumer electronics industry, and (2) the decrease in the company's comprehensive gross profit margin due to the increase in the price of raw material PET.
Mini-LED reflective film and lithium diaphragm will contribute new growth momentum and ensure the company's long-term growth.
If the downstream demand is gradually repaired, the company's traditional optical film business will also be repaired. In the field of Mini-LED, the company's reflective film products have been steadily supplied to Samsung, LG, and to BOE, TCL, Sony Group Corp and other customers have also achieved small batch supply, the market share ranks first in the world.
According to Group Intelligence Consulting, the global shipments of Mini LED backlit intelligent terminal products are expected to reach 16 million units by 2025. In addition, the company's first diaphragm equipment has been trial-produced and is currently in the stage of customer certification and capacity climbing, which will further ensure the growth of the company after mass production.
Catalyst. Lithium battery diaphragm batch shipment; raw material price drop.
Risk hint. The progress of mass production of diaphragm products is not as expected; the capacity climbing is not as expected.
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
Comment(0)
Reason For Report