Three quarterly results: the first three quarters of 22 achieved revenue of 621 million yuan, yoy-12.42%; return net profit of 135 million yuan, yoy-23.67%; deducted non-net profit of 128 million yuan, yoy-24.24%.
Among them, Q3 realized revenue of 126 million yuan, yoy-49.75%, month-on-month ratio of-47.82%, net profit of 34 million yuan and yoy-48.33%, month-on-month ratio of-41.93%.
MLCC bottoming pressure released, exchange rate + profit margin improved
On the raw material side, as of September 30, Shanghai Nickel has fallen 55.94% from its high level, the new pricing model has been blessed, and the gross profit margin has continued to return to 40%; on the demand side, the company's Q3 revenue is-49.75% year-on-year, month-on-month-47.82%, mainly due to the epidemic situation & the impact of the downturn in the consumer electronics market, and the downstream MLCC destocking cycle is under pressure. We think the market demand is expected to reverse in 22Q4 or early next year. On the expense side, the company Q3 financial expenses-14 million yuan, year-on-year + 496%, month-on-month ratio-22%, mainly due to the appreciation of the US dollar exchange rate, high export share continues to dominate; interest rate side, the new pricing model continues to improve, 22Q3 single-quarter gross profit margin of 41.83%, month-on-month ratio + 4.43pct; superposition management & financial expenses decreased, 22Q3 single-quarter net profit rate 26.89%, month-on-quarter + 2.73pct.
Silver-clad copper shipments welcome the new level, the forward-looking layout of silicon powder business.
In terms of silver-coated copper, the company has built a new trial production line of silver-coated copper powder for HJT heterojunction battery to continuously promote product performance & large-scale cost reduction exploration, and is expected to continue to benefit from the domestic trend of low-temperature silver paste; in terms of silicon powder, process optimization to improve unit yield efficiency, actively cooperate with customers to expand energy density and cycle stability path, at the same time, the company plans to increase in private, actively replenish the flow for new projects and continue to provide the company with power for growth.
Investment suggestion: as the leader of domestic MLCC nickel powder, we believe that the MLCC industry is expected to build a bottom and reverse, the company's nickel powder is actively expanding production, at the same time, Q4 wallet copper powder shipment is expected to meet the new order of magnitude, silicon powder is actively optimized to break through the technical path of per unit yield, and the company's 22-24 year net profit is expected to be 1.90max 3.30 / 418 million yuan (considering the rise in raw materials and periodic pressure on the MLCC industry, slightly downgrade the profit forecast. The previous value is 2.18 shock (RMB 348,000,000), corresponding to the previous share price on 64-37-29, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the risk of market demand fluctuation, the risk of project construction falling short of expectations, and the risk of raw material price fluctuation.