Main points of investment
The net profit of Q3 in 2022 was 150 million yuan, an increase of 31.3% over the previous month, which was consistent with the forecast performance and in line with market expectations. In 2022, Q3 Company achieved revenue of 1.347 billion yuan, an increase of 72.28% over the same period last year, an increase of 38.66% over the previous year; net profit of 150 million yuan, down 0.21% from the same period last year, an increase of 31.3% over the previous year, deducting 150 million yuan of non-homed net profit, an increase of 11.71% over the same period last year, an increase of 34.05%; gross profit was 18.02%, year-on-year-11.13pct, month-on-month-6.88pct Return to the mother net interest rate of 11.11%, year-on-year-8.07pct, month-on-month-0.62pct.
Q3 shipments increased by 45% month-on-month, and gross profit margin declined. We expect Q3 to ship about 14500 tons of copper foil, an increase of 45%, which is in line with market expectations. at present, the monthly output can reach 5000 tons +, and Q4 production is expected to increase by another 20% month-on-month. Annual shipments are expected to double to 55000 tons over the same period last year, and shipments in 23 years are expected to be about 90,000 tons, an increase of 60% +. At the profit end, Q3's gross profit margin is 18.02%, a sharp drop in 6.88pct from the previous month, with a gross profit per ton of 16700 yuan / ton, a drop of 30% from the previous month. We expect Q4 company's profit per ton to maintain 10,000 yuan / ton, and the annual unit profit is expected to be about 11,000 yuan / ton.
The acceleration of capacity expansion has contributed to the long-term high growth of the company. The company's capacity expansion has accelerated, doubling for two consecutive years, with 4.5 μ m copper foil accounting for more than 50% of planned production capacity. The first phase of Baidu 15000 tons has been put into production in September, and we estimate that the company will have a production capacity of 72000 tons by the end of 22nd. With the 5000 tons of high-performance copper foil project in Meixian, the 20, 000-ton electrolytic copper foil project in Ganzhou, the 16000-ton and 15000-ton high-performance copper foil project in Baidu production area, the 15000-ton high-performance copper foil project in Fu'an City, and the 10,000-ton high-precision ultra-thin copper foil project in Shandong gradually. It is estimated that the production capacity will reach 10-110000 tons in 2023, which will help the company to grow high for a long time.
During the period of Q3, the cost rate decreased significantly, which was caused by the decrease of R & D expenditure rate. The total cost during the 22Q3 period is 66 million yuan, an increase of 1.36% over the same period last year,-35.35% compared with the previous year, the expense rate during the period is 4.89%, year-on-year-3.42pct, month-on-month ratio-5.6pct; sales expenses 3 million yuan, sales expense rate 0.21%, year-on-year increase of 0.07pct, month-on-month ratio-0.05pct; management expenses 27 million yuan, management expense rate 1.98%, year-on-year increase or decrease 0pct, month-on-month-0.71pct The R & D cost is 16 million yuan, and the R & D expenditure rate is 1.16%, year-on-year-3.6pct, month-on-month-4.34pct.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the decline in copper foil processing fees, we lowered the company's 2022-2024 net profit to 694 million yuan (the original forecast was 1.762 billion yuan), with a year-on-year rate of + 16.52%, 50.39% and 34.76%, corresponding to a 23-year 25xPE of 23 25xPE and a target price of 79.25 yuan. considering the accelerated expansion of the company's production capacity, the product structure was gradually optimized. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the competition in the industry intensifies and the policy is not as expected.